China's central bank cut interest rates last week, and this supported energy prices, which have not been this low for some time. Even though it is difficult to predict the course of prices over the next few weeks, we believe that the market had fully anticipated the bad news and that a rally is in the works. The next meeting of OPEC members is scheduled forNovember 27
- In the lead-up to next week's meeting, a growing number of analysts expect the cartel to cut production to slow the drop in oil prices. A reduction of one million barrels per day would have an immediate impact on prices. We were interested in comments made by Rafael Ramirez, Venezuela's Foreign Minister, who said that Venezuela would be interested in cutting back production as part of an agreement among the leading international actors. Venezuela has also entered into discussions with Russia to find a solution to the current situation
- On Friday, Russia also said that it was willing to cooperate with Saudi Arabia to trim production. Coordinated action by Russia and OPEC would clearly have a major impact on prices. Even though a production cutback would negatively affect Russia's oil revenues, this would be more than offset by higher prices. Saudi Arabia and Russia are the world's two largest oil producing countries, together accounting for over 20% of global production. Revenues from oil and natural gas exports represent 50% of Russia's revenues, and the recent drop in prices has pushed its economy toward recession. To balance its budget, Russia needs oil to be selling at $100 per barrel in 2014 and $90 per barrel in 2015
- According to the latest data from Bloomberg, more cash is now flowing into funds that replicate the price of crude oil than we have seen since June 2012.
Have a good week!
Emmanuel Tessier-Fleury