After 18 months of negotiations, progress has been made in reviving the Iran nuclear deal. We’ve been here before and have seen talks fall apart. What is a little different this time is that it seems the Iranians are willing to discuss the terms. If the Iran nuclear deal is revived, that could send oil prices down to the low $80s.
Crude prices are declining over fears China’s growth could slow much more and on improving odds that the Iranian crude could flood the market as negotiators near a potential revival of the Iran nuclear deal. The crude demand outlook is taking a big hit after a wrath of disappointing Chinese economic activity readings and as Germany struggles. Oil won’t catch a bid here as China’s recovery is weakening and Germany continues to underperform in the EU.
Gold
Gold prices are struggling as global bond yields surge across the board. Treasury yields jumped after the latest housing starts data disappointed. The housing market is cooling as the starts data falls to a new 17-month low, which will be well received by the Fed. The Fed can continue with its aggressive rate tightening schedule as it is working.