Oil is mustering up a nice rally as energy traders try to price in a China recovery that will unfold over the next few months. WTI crude has strong support in the mid-$80s as the oil market still remains tight and now that a short-term peak with the dollar is in place.
Crude prices extended gains after the EIA crude oil inventory report showed exports surged to a record high and gasoline demand bounced back. Crude production is anchored and that probably will remain the case unless the oil giants signal major investments in CAPEX.
The next big move in oil might come from oil earnings later this week that will tell us if we are going to see any investments in new wells.
Gold
Gold is ready to form its pre-Fed trading range. A weaker dollar has been good news for bullion investors, but gains should be capped well ahead of the $1700 level. Treasury yields on the 10-year note have been steadily declining and that has helped make non-interest-bearing gold look more attractive.
The Bank of Canada’s dovish surprise was good news for gold as it shows a major economy is already downshifting its tightening pace. Expectations are growing for the Fed to shift to a half-point pace in December and if that seems more likely after next week, gold could have a nice breakout above the $1700 level.