Oil Lifted By OPEC Deal, Dollar Gained But Stays in Range

Published 12/01/2016, 03:36 AM
Updated 03/09/2019, 08:30 AM
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The news that OPEC finally agreed on a deal to cut production boosted WTI crude oil to as high as 49.9 overnight, just shy of 50 handle. Stocks were pushed up which DJIA hitting new record higher at 19225.29 before paring gains to close at 19123.58, nearly flat. US treasury yields were also lifted with 30 year yield hitting 3.087 before closing at 3.017. 10 year yield also jumped to 2.41 before then closed at 2.368. Dollar index benefited from the development and hit as high as 101.83 and sent dollar higher against Yen and Swiss Franc. Nonetheless, note that yields and Dollar index are kept below last week's high. EUR/USD is also staying in range above 1.0518 temporary low. The greenback and yields are still cautiously waiting for non-farm payroll report to be released tomorrow.

OPEC agreed to cut productions by 1.2m barrels again after the meeting in Vienna. That's the first concerted effort since in production cut since 2008. And the cut represents 1% of global production. Saudi Arabia would take the biggest hit with 486k barrels cut a day. Iraq will also lower production by 20k barrels a day. Iran, Nigeria and Libya were exempted. Non-OPEC producers are also expected to lower production by 600k barrels a day with Russia contributing 300k barrels a day.

In US, Fed's Beige Book economic report painted a generally upbeat picture on the economy as "outlooks were mainly positive" with half of the twelve districts "expecting moderate growth." Also, "districts noted slight upward pressure on overall prices." The reported noted "a tightening in labor market conditions was reported by seven districts, with modest employment growth on balance." However, the "strong dollar" was cited as a "headwind" while demand for manufactured goods was "mixed".

Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester said that she viewed "a small step up in interest rates as appropriate" and "it will help prolong the expansion" of the economy. She warned that "if we delay too long and then find ourselves in a situation where the labor market becomes unsustainably tight, price pressures become excessive, and we have to move rates up steeply, we could risk a recession, a bad outcome that disproportionately harms the more vulnerable parts of our society."

Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan said that looking into 2017, Fed will "remove some further amount of accommodation" as employment and inflation make progress. And he maintained his stance to support having a rate hike in near term. He was "comfortable" with a hike back in both September and November and he noted that his view hasn't changed. Meanwhile, he also emphasized the need to pay attention to how Donal Trump's "new policies evolve and develop".

Released in Asia, official China manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in November while non-manufacturing PMI rose to 54.7. Caixin manufacturing PMI, however, dropped to 50.9. Japan PMI manufacturing was finalized at 51.3 in November. Capital spending dropped -1.3% in Q3. Australia private capital expenditure dropped -4.0% in Q3. New Zealand terms of trade dropped -1.8% qoq in Q3. Looking ahead, PMI manufacturing will be the main focuses of the day. Swiss will release SVME PMI and retail sales. Eurozone will release PMI manufacturing final and unemployment rate. UK will release PMI manufacturing. US will release jobless claims, construction spending and ISM manufacturing.

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