In Sweden, the week ahead is packed with interesting data. It kicks off with the NIER's consumer and business confidence surveys (Wednesday, 09:00 CET) where spirits have been running high recently. Also on Wednesday, half an hour later, Statistics Sweden is due to publish the Producer Price Index (including export and import prices) and finally on Thursday (09:30 CET), trade balance data and financial market statistics are due out, which contain data on household debt growth etc. The week will end with retail sales statistics (on Friday, 09:30 CET).
The Swedish Debt Office is on Wednesday tapping SEK4bn in the SGB 1% 11/26 as well as undertaking a switch auction, where the Debt Office is buying SGB 1% 11/26 and selling SGB 2.5% 05/25 and SGB 1.5% 11/23. Given the pick-up to Germany we expect decent demand at the auction.
In Norway, the week's most important release will undoubtedly be the Q4 oil investment survey on Tuesday. The previous report indicated only a very moderate decline in investment in 2016 relative to consensus, but oil prices have since fallen by almost USD20/bbl and we expect this to trigger a further decline in investment in exploration, pulling the overall estimate down.
Also important will be the retail sales numbers for October due out on Friday. Two successive weak months have fuelled concern that the downturn in the Norwegian economy is now having an impact on household demand, in which case there is a substantial risk of a deeper and longer-lasting slump. We estimate a slight rebound in October, with retail sales climbing 0.7% m/m.
In Denmark, the statistical office will release its monthly employment data for September on Monday and manufacturing confidence numbers for November on Friday.
The Danish refinancing auction continues this week. The auctions last week started out on a strong footing with tighter spreads for the non-callable bonds, but later in the week some of the performance reversed slightly.
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