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Oil Crash Resumes: When Does It Stop?

ByMike (Mish) Shedlock
Published 04/21/2020, 03:32 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
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Crude for June delivery plunged below the $10 level and those futures could go negative as well.

Anyone rolling oil futures is in a world of hurt. Yesterday, it was mainly the small traders who got wiped out. Today, managed funds are getting killed.

Some “American pipeline companies are requiring companies seeking space on their lines to provide proof of destination certificates verifying there is a refiner at the other end of the pipeline willing to take the oil.”

COT Position

Let's do the Math

Large speculators are long 510,699 contracts.

Small speculators are long 44,160 contracts.

Each contract represents 1,000 barrels.

A move of $10 amounts to a profit or loss of 510,699 * 1000 * $10 = $5.1 billion.

Actual losses are far worse because many speculators have been rolling contracts for months on end.

Speculators who have been rolling contracts since $50 are now down $40 per barrel.

If prices go to -$40 like they did yesterday, we are talking about losses approaching $90 billion or so.

Trump Wants to Formulate a Plan

Negative Oil Prices

Yesterday, the price of oil plunged to -$40 because there was nowhere to store it.

Longs were trapped in a situation where they were forced to take delivery of crude and had to get out at any price.

My Plan

  • Stop the bailouts.
  • Let the oil speculators go bankrupt.
  • Let the financers take it on the chin as well.

When Does the Crash Stop?

  1. When producers stop drilling oil that is not needed.
  2. When the speculators putting on "paper oil" trades get wiped out.

Paper Oil

Oil is another example of leveraged trades. Even more so than gold, speculators will not take delivery.

Only Plan We Need

It's time for personal responsibility, not bailouts of favored industries.

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