A recent report from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) notes that the global economy may not be robust enough to handle an increase in protectionism (tariff barriers), overly optimistic stock prices and a resurgence in currency volatility. The OECD is still calling for global growth of 3.3% in 2017, slightly better than the 3% seen in 2016. This weak performance, which is significantly below the average of the past 20 years (just under 4%) is alleged to be the result of low levels of investment and poor gains in productivity. In short, the OECD is reminding us not to get overly complacent.
This morning, we’ll be keeping an eye on North American export data at 8:30. In the United States, economists expect a trade deficit of -48.5 billion in January compared to the previous -44.3 billion. Could this serve as another source of inspiration for tweets from President Trump? In Canada, we’re calling for another positive trade balance of some 750 million in January after seeing a surprising jump to 920 million in December. This could be another encouraging sign for the Canadian economy, forcing the USD/CAD pair to hold steady for the second day in a row.
