The New Zealand dollar has been weakening in the past two weeks against the U.S. dollar, and for five consecutive weeks against the euro and the Australian dollar.
The next RBNZ meeting is scheduled for Sept. 23. As its manager Adrian Orr said after the RBNZ meeting, "new outbreaks of the virus did not have a significant impact on decisions on monetary policy."
RBNZ Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby said on Friday that the bank views the New Zealand dollar as an important channel for influencing monetary conditions. If the RBNZ cuts its key interest rate into negative territory, it would put downward pressure on the NZ dollar, Hawkesby said.
Meanwhile, the decline in the U.S. dollar has stopped so far. DXY dollar futures were traded in a tight range on Friday, having been in the early European session near 93.25, after hitting a new 26-week low near 92.47 last week.
The data released on Thursday by the U.S. Labor Department showed that the country's labor market recovery is gaining momentum.
The decrease in the number of applications suggests that the wave of layoffs has begun to decline, and the rate of hiring is growing, economists say.
Other indicators also indicate that the coronavirus-affected labor market is starting to recover and is likely already past its worst phase of the crisis.
In July, against the background of a massive weakening of the US dollar, the NZD/USD pair continued its four-month growth, coming close to the important and strong resistance level of 0.6730 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
However, further growth in the pair has stalled, and today NZD/USD is declining for the second week in a row, breaking through the strong support level 0.6610 (ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), as well as important short-term support levels 0.6592 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.6567 (ЕМА200 at 4-hour chart).
Nevertheless, NZD/USD still maintains positive momentum and potential for renewed growth, as it is in the zone above the key support level of 0.6400 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). But its breakdown will significantly increase the likelihood of a further decline in NZD/USD and its return to the global downtrend.
In an alternative scenario, NZD/USD will resume its growth. A signal for the implementation of this scenario will be a breakdown of the resistance levels 0.6592, 0.6610.
Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 0.6490. Stop-Loss 0.6580. Take-Profit 0.6400, 0.6260, 0.6190
Buy Stop 0.6580. Stop-Loss 0.6490. Take-Profit 0.6592, 0.6610, 0.6730