The New Zealand dollar has been strengthening on improving inflation expectations, as reported in a recent Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) survey. Earlier this week, a government-commissioned report on the economic impact of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) estimated the economy would grow between 0.3 percent and 1 percent, with exporters having better access to new markets such as Japan, Canada and Mexico. However, the major market moving event on the horizon is retail sales data due on Thursday. The estimate is for quarterly retail sales to come in at 1.4% and the core retail sales are expected to come in at 0.7%.
In the daily timeframe, NZD/USD has found major resistance at 0.7400. The 0.7400-0.7500 zone has prevented the pair from upside progress for 2 years. NZD/USD appears to have double topped, as recent U.S. dollar strength helps to drive the pair lower. Near-term support is at 0.7305 and a break of this level could lead to further declines to support at 0.7280 and then 0.7255. To the upside, a break of 0.7350 would target resistance at 0.7400.
GBP/NZD is seen to be challenging the August trend line and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.8930. A confirmed break in the daily time frame could lead to further declines, with support at 1.8800 and 1.8710, before targeting the 50% Fibonacci and 200MA at 1.8600. However, any reversal would need to break resistance at 1.9080 to make progress towards 0.9140.
