A larger corrective downtrend started from 0.8845 (Aug’11 high) appears to be unfolding in a multi-month flat wave pattern. The corrective recovery from 0.7455 (June low) has the potential to retest the swing high at 0.8845. A reversal below 0.8050/0.7915 however would renew the bear trend toward 0.7800/0.7455.
The upleg from 0.8155 (December 26 low) may be the final leg of a wedge pattern (Diagonal fifth wave in Elliot terms). The strength may fade at the wedge resistance line around 0.8530/0.8550 (Weekly band resistance is at 0.8560).
Potential bearish divergences in daily RSI also signal losing momentum. A reversal below 0.8210/0.8155 would confirm a short-term reversal and refocus on the 0.8050/0.7915 support. A move above 0.8575 however extends the uptrend.