In Sweden, the week ahead is packed with interesting data. It starts off on Tuesday (at 09.30 CEST), when Statistics Sweden (SCB) publishes the labour force survey (incl. unemployment rate, employment, hours worked etc.). We expect the quite stable linear trend to have continued also in April.
On Thursday (at 09.00 CEST), the NIER publishes its business and consumer confidence surveys, which despite having weak leading properties, normally attracts some financial market attention. Half an hour later, SCB publishes data on April trade balance and producer prices (PPI) and we expect it to hover (in seasonally adjusted terms) around current levels (-1 to +2 SEK bn).
The Swedish debt office will tap the Jun '22 and the Nov '26 government bonds on Wednesday. We continue to see value in the mid-segment of the Swedish curve.
In Denmark the mortgage refinancing auction period beginning with Nykredit's auction in interest reset (non-callable bullets) bonds on Monday. The refinancing auctions of floater bonds will start Tuesday and continue until Thursday 26. May.
We expect a fair amount of investor interest at the auctions, considering: (1) the attractive yield pick-up of, expectedly, 10-15bp for floaters over non-callable bullets and (2) non-callable bullets are currently trading slightly below the levels of the November and August 2015 auctions.
In Norway, the week's big event is without doubt the publication of the Q2 oil investment survey. Dwindling investment in the oil sector has been the main driver behind the slowdown in Norway and the outlook in this area is crucial for our growth forecast. Since the last survey in February, the oil price has risen by USD14-15/bl, reducing the likelihood of a further downward revision of investment estimates for this year, so we expect the survey to continue to suggest a drop in investment of around 14% in 2016.
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