In Sweden, the week ahead will reveal important pieces of the GDP Q3 puzzle as industrial production and orders are published (Thursday at 09.30 CET), and we expect it to confirm the impressions of a deceleration of growth momentum visible in other sets of data. Also out during the week is PMI data from both manufacturing and services sectors (Monday and Wednesday respectively, at 08.30 CET) and Services Production (Thursday at 09.30 CET), which should claw back some of the drop of recent months.
In Norway, we do not expect Norges Bank to touch interest rates on Thursday. Nor do we expect any clear signals that the bank is planning to cut in December. Although recent data - especially for consumption - has been weaker than anticipated, and LFS unemployment has risen sharply, the manufacturing downturn seems to be easing somewhat, with both the PMI and manufacturing confidence now climbing again. Fiscal policy also looks set to be almost NOK15bn more expansionary than assumed in the September monetary policy report, which should, in isolation and theoretically, push interest rates up by at least 25bp.
The coming week also brings PMI data for October and industrial production figures for September. The surprise increase in the PMI in September may mean that the manufacturing downturn is slowing, which is good news for the economy, especially if the trend change is confirmed. Given the turnaround in the PMI, we expect industrial production to be unchanged m/m.
In Denmark, the Nationalbank will publish its October currency reserves data. We expect the currency intervention numbers to show that intervention has slowed further in October, further supporting our view that the Danish central bank will not hike rates for the foreseeable future. In fact, we consider that EUR/DKK is now trading below 7.46038 (the central parity) and forthcoming ECB easing, it might just be a matter of time before we will see the Danish central bank being in the market purchasing foreign currency and not selling foreign currency as has been the case the past five months. We continue to see value in Danish Fixed Income.
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