Last week we published Nordic Outlook . After several years of very different outcomes across the Nordic countries, we now have convergence in growth of around 2% or better. Prospects are good for the Nordic countries, but not likely to become much better.
In Sweden , the labour force survey is out Tuesday, at 09.30 CEST. We expect employment to continue to grow strongly. On Wednesday, the NIER publishes its Business and Consumer Confidence surveys (at 09.00 CEST) and soon after (at 09.15 CEST) its new forecasts, having something of a benchmark status among Swedish forecasters.
In Norway , the week's key event is the Norges Bank meeting on Thursday where we, in line with consensus, expect rates to be unchanged,
In the latest MPR, Norges Bank presented a rate path that included a 40% probability of another rate cut in Q4 this year. We now expect this 'easing bias' to be removed from the interest rate path, as higher capacity utilisation and a weaker NOK more than counteract the negative effect from lower inflation and lower global rates.
In Denmark , consumer confidence data for June are released on Thursday. The indicator has trended up so far this year, but dropped back slightly in May. We believe this was only temporary and expect it to climb again to 6.5 in June.
On Wednesday, Statistics Denmark publishes figures for employment in April and housing prices in Q1.
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