Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment and more sideway trading might be seen. But another fall remains mildly in favor with 121.78 minor resistance intact. Below 120.29 temporary low will target a test on 119.37 support first. Break will confirm resumption of fall from 127.30 and should target a test on 116.83 low next. On the upside, above 121.78 minor resistance will dampen this immediate bearish case and bring another rise to extend the recovery from 119.37. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 50% retracement of 127.30 to 119.37 at 123.33 and bring fall resumption eventually.
In the bigger picture, there is no sign of reversal in GBP/JPY as it's still staying well below the falling 55 weeks EMA (now at 127.67). The down trend from 2007 high of 251.09 is still expected to continue to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06, which is close to 100 psychological level. On the upside, break of 130.83 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish even in case of further rebound.
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 101.25; (P) 101.43; (R1) 101.62;
EUR/JPY continues to stay in tight range above 101.04 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could still be seen but recovery should be limited by 102.98 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 101.04 will extend the decline from 111.57 to 61.8% projection of 111.57 to 102.48 from 105.54 at 99.92, which is close to 100 psychological level. Also, sustained trading below 100 will confirm resumption of the larger down trend and should target 61.8% projection of 123.31 to 100.74 from 111.57 at 97.59.
In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY moved further away from the falling 55 weeks EMA and affirmed the case that downtrend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress. 100 psychological level should be taken out eventually towards 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52, which is close to 88.96 all time low. On the upside, break of 111.57 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal. Otherwise, we'll continue to stay bearish in the cross.
