During the past 3-4 weeks my preferred scenario called for the 10-year yield to stall at around 2.50% followed by a decline into the 2.10%-2.00% support zone prior to my expectation of the emergence of a new up-leg that propels yield to 2.90%-3.00%.
That said, my near-term pattern work is warning me that last week's (July 9) low at 2.17% followed by a sharp rally to Monday's high at 2.47% signifies the end of a June-July correction and the initiation of a new up-leg.
If a new up-leg is emerging, then I must modify (raise) my entry window for "buying yield" from 2.10%-2.00% to 2.32%-2.27%.
