After Christine Lagard's less "hawkish" comments, delivered yesterday, the EU have turned green. FTSE MIB +1%, , DAX +1.40%. The US futures are still on the backfoot: NASDAQ - 0.58%, S&P 500 - 0.37%, at writing.
In the US, the market awaits the inflation data due on Feb. 10. The consensus expects another acceleration to + 7.3% due to the pressures of the energy component, but also for the further acceleration in used car prices, as well as second-level effects such as rents and wages (after the sharp rise of hourly wages at 5.7%) which explain the expected acceleration also in core inflation (expected at 5.9% vs. 5.5%).
In Europe, good news regarding the possible war in Ukraine. Between Russia and France, there are 'elements of convergence' on how to continue a negotiation to avert a war in Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron summarized the result of more than five hours of talks in the Kremlin with Vladimir Putin.
We are witnessing a super rise in the euro, due to the increase in the interest rate, which should arrive in the third quarter of 2022. A strong Euro is not good for exports and will put the German industry in serious difficulty. Yesterday's data on industrial production is negative. The bottlenecks of the supply chain are penalizing Germany. New lows are therefore possible in the 14500 area for the Dax.
Hot Stocks And Instruments
Peloton (NASDAQ:PTON): The Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times wrote over the weekend that various entities, including Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) + 1.4%, Nike (NYSE:NKE) + 0.5% and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), are considering the possibility of submitting an offer to the company.
Crude oil: OPEC + monthly report comes out on Thursday: the document indicates the extent of the increase in production in January by the members of the cartel.
Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:FB): It lost another 5%, reaching a drop of 40% from the highs of September. With the market closed, the company announced that Peter Thiel would step down from his seat on the board of directors this spring after 16 years. Thiel should work alongside Republican candidates who have pledged to push Trump's agenda forward.
Alibaba (NYSE:BABA): The stock is one step away from new lows, the chances of liquidation by Softbank (OTC:SFTBY) are very high.
Conclusion
Regarding Peloton, I don't believe in the possibility of an acquisition. The price of the company is high. It is not the first time that such situations do not materialize. Prices could be in the $25 area.
On Meta and Alibaba, these are two stocks where I decided to exit early from my long positions. The latest news on the stocks is very negative. Meta platforms has seen an important member leave the board, and Alibaba continues to be a dangerous stock due to the lack of transparency regarding the quarterly results.
In addition, one of the main shareholders is preparing to exit by selling their shares. I expect $210 and $100, respectively, as possible lows on these stocks.