Democrats and Republicans failed to reach an agreement on the budget for fiscal 2014 last night: several federal agencies are therefore closed this morning. The last U.S. government shutdown dates back to December 1995, and had lasted nearly 3 weeks. As a result, national parks and museums are closed and several economic indicators are not being released today.
Despite this news, European stock markets are up and the futures market is pointing to a slightly positive opening in New York. Since the beginning of the year, the S&P500 and Dow Jones have posted gains of 18% and 15% respectively, despite the downturn of the last few weeks. In this context, caution is in order, particularly if the government remains shutdown over an extended period of time.
This situation will not be positive for the U.S. dollar, which is losing ground against the main currencies. The U.S. Dollar Index DXY is down by 5.3% since the July 9 closing, and we can expect more hard times ahead. Wishing you a great day! Emmanuel Tessier-Fleury
Range of the day: 1.0255-1.0350