Pressure is mounting on emerging nations as the rupee and Brazilian real are continuing their slide against the greenback. These difficulties are largely attributable to the withdrawal of investment inflows, as investors fear that Western central banks will end their cash infusions. These problems originated with the Fed meeting on May 1. Since that time, the Indian, Brazilian and Russian currencies have dropped by 23%, 19% and 7%, respectively.
The Canadian dollar is at attractive levels for exporters. While a growing number of investors fear a stock market correction this fall, it is interesting to note that the negative correlation between the CAD and U.S. stock markets is a thing of the past and has been at 33% since the beginning of 2013. It was at 70% between 2008 and 2012. A stock market correction would therefore have a smaller negative impact on our currency than previously.
Discussions over the increase of the debt ceiling are back on, and adding to the current climate of uncertainty. Once again, watch for last-minute dealings! In economic news, the S&P/Case Shiller House Price Index is expected at 9 a.m. this morning, and the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index at 10 a.m. Wishing you a great day. Emmanuel Tessier-Fleury
Range of the day: 1.0485-1.0575