While analyzing the reasons behind the sharp surge in natural gas prices, it seems to be more or less a short-covering rally that started with the option expiry on Sept. 27, followed by the rollover of the October contracts on Sept. 28.
The first two trading sessions of this week increased the level of bullish expectations for the sustainability of a limitless upward move, as futures started this week with a gap-up opening due to the rollover of the October contract on Sept. 26.
These two trading sessions resulted in an expiration-generated rally that was sparked by the growing anxiety of traders that had witnessed futures test their seven-year peak at $5.644. I warned about this overdose of anxiety.
One of the major causes behind the rally was Hurricane Ida which caused power outages and damaged production infrastructures in the Gulf of Mexico. Undoubtedly the Hurricane fever continued till the middle of last week, when futures ignored the inventory announcement with a steep upward move.
On the other hand, short-sellers were in a panic before the October contract expiration.
Tuesday’s movement could be an advent of the next downward trend of natural gas because the Hurricane fear has now vanished. Secondly, the upcoming winter season may not be too severe to increase Heating Degree Days 
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