Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the West has imposed sanctions on Russia and provided support to Ukraine. This resulted in supply disruption of oil and gas in Europe more than in other parts of the world as Russia started to sell crude oil and natural gas to some of the Asian countries at discounted rates.
The supply crises resulted in a price rally in oil and gas. The rally from $4.346 peaked at $10.05 on Aug. 23 this year before sliding to the lows of Mar. 1, 2022. Futures found a breakdown below the lows tested on July 5 before bouncing again after hitting a low at $5.335.
Prices are tumbling as the European Union remains divided over Russian sanctions. Fear forced most countries to increase their energy stock or storing capacities as oil and gas prices tested price peaks in 2022.
Now, this stock-holding fear seems to be over, as sanctions imposed on Russia have hardly impacted resolving the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
Leaders of the 27 European Union countries meet on Thursday for the second time in a fortnight to try to bring down energy prices, though persistent divisions between them mean the bloc is unlikely for now to put a ceiling on what it pays for the natural gas.
Dozens of ships carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) circling off the coasts of Spain, unable to secure slots to unload, have prompted grid operators to suspend loading to deal with this "exceptional situation" as the region has had to find alternative supplies, including LNG. Still, the arrival of multiple cargoes of the super-chilled fuel has exposed Europe's lack of "regasification" capacity, as plants that convert the seaborne fuel back to gas are operating at the maximum limit.
The upcoming inventory announcement within the next few minutes could provide a boost to natural gas futures. A flip in the current trend could only be possible if natural gas finds a sustainable move above $5.858 before this weekly closing.
Finally, the changing weather patterns allow bears to remain aggressive until this year's end.
Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in Natural Gas and WTI Crude Oil futures. Readers are advised to take any position at their own risk, as Natural Gas is one of the most liquid commodities in the world.