Last Thursday, the EIA weekly natural gas storage reported a draw of -222 Bcf, right in line with market expectations but much larger than the 5-year average of -150 Bcf.
This increased deficits of -143 Bcf to -215 and decreased supplies to 2,101 Bcf. Next week’s EIA report is expected to bring a draw near -200 Bcf, around 40 Bcf larger than the 5-year average.
Friday, demand for natural gas could increase from low levels to strong from Sunday to Tuesday as a chilly weather system looks to be in favor of rain and snow tracks across the Midwest and the eastern US with lows of -0s 30s, including lows of 20s and 30s deep into the South and Southwest.
Amid such uncertainty, traders still look indecisive to remain long or not. But the majority of the traders, still look reluctant to go short as any sudden change in weather outlook. Secondly, the level of geopolitical tension between the US and Russia could propel the bullish sentiments and that could further result in a short-covering rally after a breakout by natural gas futures above $4.448.
In a 15 minute chart, futures look ready for a breakout as currently trading well above the 200 DMA after testing a low at $3.883 on Thursday. Undoubtedly, the level of $4.040 has turned into an immediate resistance but still, this level could turn back into strong support, once the futures find a sustainable move above $4.148.
In an hourly chart, natural gas is currently struggling to find a breakout above $4.040 but still maintaining above the Ichimoku Clouds. Secondly, a bullish crossover is about to complete in an hourly chart that could result in a breakout move between 07:00 A.M. to 08:30 A.M. if the futures hold a level above $3.988.
In a daily chart, the futures look strong after going through selling pressure from the last four trading sessions, but the reversal is visible on Friday. After a mild break mid-next week over the southern and eastern US, the overnight GFS was the further colder trend with a weather system into the northern US Feb.18-20 for a swing back to surging demand for the natural gas.
Technically speaking, natural gas has shown a good reversal from $3.883 and looking for a breakout above $4.424 before this weekly closing. Despite extreme volatility, the futures could hit the defined target above 200 DMA that could change the whole mindset of the bears.
Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in Natural Gas futures. Readers are advised to take any position at their own risk; as Natural Gas is one of the most liquid commodities of the world.