Natural gas on the Nymex had a positive week, closing 18% higher than the previous week at $8.30. The September contract is currently trading at $8.18. EIA reported on Thursday, a relatively bullish build for this time of year of only 32 Bcf in working underground stocks for the week ended Jul. 15. Total inventory, however, starts looking normal in the middle of the refill season at 2,401 Bcf, 10% lower y/y and only 12% below the 5-year average.
We are done with the buying operations for the rest of the season. We already took 30% on exhaustion, and the market offers us another gift at ridiculously high pricing. The post-winter downtrend is the smart call here. We are going to see it developing sooner than any other season. We have no interest whatsoever in buying this market at current levels. Price will get scorned in the next couple of months. If not right away.
We have talked numerous times before about the fundamentals. The direction of the U.S. natural gas market is $3.70 for the April '23 contract. The same ranges have been offering multiple times the profit. U.S. macro data and the Dollar Index have to be monitored routinely. Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI are pointing to entry areas.
