On analyzing the movements of the natural gas futures in different time charts since I wrote my last analysis on Mar. 26, 2025, I anticipate that this nose-dive move likely to continue amid changing weather conditions.
Secondly, constant pressure from the LNG industry on the Trump administration to rescind the policy statement issued in April 2023 on Department of Energy approvals for exports to big markets in Europe and Asia will likely keep natural gas prices on a declining path this month.
Technically, natural gas futures, after finding support at the 50 DMA to test the significant resistance at $4.2, started to move downward as the changing weather patterns are likely to keep the demand low this time which is evident from last week’s inventory level announcement.
Technical Levels to Watch
In the daily chart, natural gas futures are trying to defend the immediate support at 9 DMA at $3.966 after the formation of a bearish crossover since the 9 DMA has come below the 20 DMA which confirms the continuity of bearish pressure.
Undoubtedly, the next support is at 50 DMA at $3.887, from where the natural gas futures could again see a reversal due to changing weather patterns but the overall trend still favors the bears.
Inversely, if the natural gas futures sustain above the immediate support at 9 DMA, they could bounce back to retest the next resistance at 20 DMA at $4.109 which will generate a fresh selling spree once again.
In the weekly chart, natural gas futures are just trying to defend the significant support at 200 DMA at $3.940, despite the continuity of selling pressure this week.
Undoubtedly, a breakdown by the natural gas futures below this significant support could push the prices to test the next immediate support at 20 DMA at $3.700.
If the natural gas futures find a breakdown below this, the next support will be at 50 DMA at $2.934.
Inversely, any bounce from the current levels amid changing weather patterns will face significant resistance at $4.284.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in natural gas at their own risk as this analysis is based only on observations.