Natural gas futures on the Nymex had a bullish week before closing on Friday 23.4% higher than the previous week at $4.69. EIA confirmed on Thursday a large draw of 219 Bcf in working underground stocks for the week ending Feb. 3. Total inventory is currently at 2,591 Bcf, 10.6% lower y/y, 1% below the 5-year average. Both percentages are on a decline last couple of weeks.
We are going to sell the same ranges again. Back in Jan. 13, the Daily MACD did not manage to cross bearish and higher demand on colder weather is now offering another selling opportunity.
Surgical accuracy is going to be needed before the market's momentum changes again on the continuation of the post-winter downtrend. We have no interest whatsoever in buying this market at this time of year. Support at $3.75 won't hold on our way to test the $3.30 area later in spring for the May contract.
The Russia-Ukraine crisis won't last for another couple of months. Too many market participants try to keep fossil fuel prices high by artificial means. Vladimir Putin pressured by the results of the last Russian elections, is the latest world leader acting as a Natural Gas broker lately or salesman even. He knows very well that oil and gas revenue accounts for more than 40% of his country's GDP.
The Russian stock exchange is having very tough times lately as well as the ruble. The European market can affordably find alternatives to Russian natural gas in no time. The Russian elite has managed to show that even Νord Stream 2 is no longer necessary to Europeans. It is funny for us investors and analysts watching this show. We hope all involved parties are not so cynical as to provoke war for the sake of gas pricing.
U.S. macro data are looking concerning lately. U.S. personal income rose less than expected, personal spending slumped in December. Disposable income dipped for the third straight month.
Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI are pointing to entry areas. 