Natural Gas futures on the Nymex had a volatile week before closing 4.5% lower than a week ago at $1.66.
EIA confirmed on Thursday a build of 85 Bcf in working underground stocks for the week ending June 12. Stocks continue to decrease in percentage points both year over year and compared to the 5 year average. EIA expects the surplus to be well down in November.
Natural Gas is trading just above recent historical lows and many market participants are expecting a breakout in the uptrend in the coming months. We still need to see we are clear above a higher support level at $1.70 - $1.80, we have recently confirmed higher lows and we are looking for a positive direction amid the industry's consolidation. We are not going to sell U.S. Natural Gas during the Dog Days.
If the market wants to move to recent uncharted lows because of the coronavirus uncertainty we are not going to follow this time. We will let the market decide for us later on and remain patient for another typical uptrend on seasonality while buying the dips.
The January contract is currently at $2.93. The market showed extraordinary steadiness during the crisis. Supply and demand looking normal despite record low level of active rigs and recent lockdown. Exports are down but the discounted American price is already competing for Canadian gas imports. 90% of U.S. production is consumed domestically. U.S. macro data and the Dollar Index to be routinely monitored. Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI pointing entry areas. 