Thursday, the EIA reported a draw of -79 Bcf, slightly larger than the market expectations for -73 Bcf and was a bit above the 5-year average of -65 Bcf to increase deficits to -304 Bcf and decrease supplies to 1,440. Next week’s report could be near the 5-year average of -62 Bcf due to milder temperatures this past week.
Friday, natural gas futures closed at $4.891 after testing a weekly high at $4.997. Undoubtedly, the momentum was strong due to the presence of colder trends during the past few days. Secondly, a bullish EIA storage report was absent and production dropped 2 Bcf/day over the week and continued global uncertainty regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
NG has since sold off sharply after testing $5 and tested a low at $4.460 as cold weather systems were forecast to move into the northern US Mar. 26-28 along with the warmer trending pattern later on during Mar. 29-Apr. 1. So, within the next 15-days, the only period cold enough to satisfy is Mar. 26-28.
NG price action during the last week defined the supports, resistances, and breakout levels for the upcoming week. Undoubtedly, the futures showed strong buying support at $4.451 and this level seems to be long-term support for value-seeking buyers.
Final support is at $4.385, which provides a good reversal in case of a sharp rise up to that level.
Currently sitting in a fresh trading range for the next week with support at $4.460 and immediate resistance at $4.931, NG's weekly closing at $4.891 looks indecisive, but the opening level on the first trading session of the upcoming week will define the further direction for the commodity.
A breakout above $5.248 with a sustainable move will keep the trend in favor of natural gas bulls before testing the next psychological resistance at $6. Undoubtedly, some profit-booking could be there from high levels, but the overall trend could remain bullish as storage phobia seems to be hovering around the world following the ban of gas and oil imports from Russia by the United States and some Western countries.
The whole geopolitical situation could take a new turn with China’s involvement in the currently prevailing Russia-Ukraine war. No doubt, both Russia and Ukraine look too reluctant to negotiate with their agendas and simultaneously continue to attack each other with full strength as both have found favor from some countries. The day-to-day developments on this front could continue to increase volatility in oil and gas prices during the upcoming weeks.
Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in Natural Gas futures. Readers are advised to take any position at their own risk; as Natural Gas is one of the most liquid commodities of the world.