Upon analyzing the movements of the natural gas futures since the beginning of this month, I anticipate that the natural gas futures will likely to remain indecisive after starting an uptrend from this month’s low at $3.754 on March 3, 2025, tested a high at $4.932 and started to slide up to current levels.
Undoubtedly, these moves resulted from indecisive weather patterns and changing geo-political concerns, which intensified the bearish pressure this month.
Now, spring seems to be the best time to tap the demand for natural gas, as natural gas futures seem too stuck between the two seasons at this time—winter trying to hang on and summer trying to gain a foothold.
According to AccuWeather reports, colder air is pushing across parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast after a storm that started the week.
Moreover, the natural gas futures have once again come near the same levels from where they started to move upward, indicating a breakdown below this could ignite a fresh selling spree this week as the technical formations favor the bears to remain on the top.
Technical Levels to Watch
In the daily chart, natural gas futures are teetering at a pivotal point, just at the 50 DMA at $3.880 after forming a bearish crossover by the 9 DMA, which has moved below the 20 DMA on Mar. 21, 2025.
Undoubtedly, this situation seems to favor the bears, indicating that a breakdown below this significant support at the 50 DMA could soon result in a selling spree.
Inversely, any upward move this week will find the first significant resistance at 9 DMA, $4.046, and the second resistance at 20 DMA, $4.147.
Undoubtedly, the announcement of natural gas inventory on Thursday is likely to provide more cues for the bears, as the withdrawal levels could remain lower than expected.
In case of a breakdown below the 50 DMA, natural gas futures could find the first support at the 100 DMA, at $3.591, and the second support at the 200 DMA, at $3.093.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in natural gas futures at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.