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E-mini S&P March could be forming the right shoulder of a huge head & shoulders pattern now, with shorts at strong resistance again at 4580/90— the perfect trade last week. Shorts at resistance at 4500/10 worked perfectly on Friday as we hit 4445/35 and broke below here (not surprisingly). The weekly close below here is more negative for next week if we continue to hold below.
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NASDAQ March outlook negative with a high for the day exactly at resistance at 14380/410 yesterday.
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E-mini Dow Jones March is volatile, with no clear trend or pattern. We could be building a head & shoulders reversal pattern but we are a long way off completion.
Today's Analysis
E-mini S&P holding below 4445/35 (a high for the day 7 points below here yesterday) is an obvious sell signal targeting 4405/00 and support at 4360/50. (A LOW FOR THE DAY EXACTLY HERE YESTERDAY). A break lower targets 4325/20, then 4270/65. Further losses test incredibly important support at 4195/4185.
I still think gains are likely to be limited with resistance again at 4435/45, but a move above 4450 can target 4475/80, perhaps as far as resistance at 4500/10. Shorts need stops above 4520. Obviously, we still have strong resistance again at 4580/90 (but I doubt we see this level again for a very long time). Shorts need stops above 4610. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 4640/50.
NASDAQ continues to trend lower so I will expect that gains are likely to be limited with minor resistance at 14380/410 (a high for the day exactly here yesterday) and again at 14500/530. A sell opportunity at 14720/750. Shorts need stops above 14850. A break below 14180/160 targets 13900/850 before a retest of the January low at 13720/700. On a break below 13650, we could go quite quickly to 13400/350 and strong support at 13000/12900.
E-mini Dow Jones saw a high for the day exactly at 34750/700 level. We headed lower to 34500/450 with a low for the day at the next target of 34300/250. Watch these levels again today. A break lower however targets support at 34000/33950. A break lower however targets 33650/600. Minor resistance at 34950/35000 with strong resistance at 35350/400. Shorts need stops above 35500.
Video Analysis