The majority of the major asset classes rebounded in July, providing relief from an extended run of red ink, based on a set of proxy ETFs. The challenges that triggered widespread selling in global markets this year remain in force—the war in Ukraine, high inflation, rising interest rates and stumbling economic activity. This toxic mix will continue to create headwinds for markets, but for one month, at least, gloomy sentiment took a holiday.
US stocks (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares (NYSE:VTI)) led the revival, jumping 9.3% last month—the first monthly gain since March. Despite a strong monthly bounce, American shares remain deep in the red year to date: VTI is in the hole by 14% in 2022.
Although most markets around the world rose last month, there was no relief for stocks in emerging markets (Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares (NYSE:VWO)), which edged down 0.8% in July. Commodities (iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (NYSE:GSG)) and emerging markets government bonds (VanEck J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSE:EMLC)) also lost ground.
The Global Market Index (GMI) joined the relief rally in July. This unmanaged benchmark (maintained by CapitalSpectator.com), which holds all the major asset classes (except cash) in market-value weights, rose 6.6% last month, although this portfolio-strategy benchmark is still off by nearly 14% so far in 2022.
Comparing GMI’s performance to US stocks and bonds over the past year illustrates the strength of revival in July in relative terms. The strong rebounds look encouraging, but it’s not yet clear if the downside trendlines have run out of road.
