Morning Fundamentals: Will The Positive Euro Run End?

EUR/USD continues to hold the ground between the idea of Fed Tapering and the economic slowdown which is still very much on the cards in Europe, despite some small signs that the European Union is coming out of its recession. A Bloomberg Survey is still looking at Unemployment above 12% at record levels since the Eurostat began. Euro attempted to rally yet again during the European session with the largest gains coming in the cross currencies. The AUD/EUR for example is now at 0.6830 looking like it has finally broken the 0.7000 shackles and the time of the 0.80’s are well and truly gone.

However, the offers that have been in play for a week at 1.3300 capped with the price remaining stuck between the recent 1.3250 support and 1.3300 top. Will this positive Euro run get broken because of the pull down effect of the other majors like Sterling, AUD or even CAD? A solid break below 1.3250 signals 1.3130, however, 1.3300 looks to have unfinished business.

Compass Direction
Short-Term Medium-Term
NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

EUR/USD" title="EUR/USD" width="1003" height="580">
AUD/USD is back on the slippery slopes again as the local Building Approvals numbers disappoint and RBA Gov. Stevens that there is still room for Interest Rate cuts in the near future. Calls started to do the rounds of a 0.5% cut as early as next week. AUD started yesterdays session at 0.9200 and was almost hit with a hammer straight away as the bears tried to extend the move started the day before. However, is wasn’t until the numbers that the momentum started with AUD in free fall and thanks to Stevens the momentum only built we ended the Asia session with AUD sitting at 0.9060.

Off 140 points in the session. An attempted recovery ahead of the US session failed at 0.9100, bears attempted lower again with option related buying kicking in at 0.9030. 0.9000 will be a hard nut to crack but after the decline of the last two days the writing looks on the wall for the AUD. Is parity something that we will get to say again this year? Looks very unlikely and for the importers out there the dream run looks to be over.

Compass Direction
Short-Term Medium-Term
NEUTRAL NEUTRAL
AUD/USD" title="AUD/USD" width="996" height="601">