Since the forecasts were so inaccurate in 2022, through 2023, you rarely hear any kind of recession talk these days, and for good reason, with the US job market being frighteningly consistent the last 36 months.
Jobless claims, one of this blog’s favorite economic indicators given its frequency, have consistently hovered between 210k – 230k with the exception of October and the hurricanes in North Carolina, when the data briefly jumped up to 250k. Personally, Ive been waiting for the weekly jobless claims print to rise above 255k – 260k for two years now, given the fed funds rate hikes, and nothing.
Here’s the Briefing.com economic calendar for the coming week:
While the JOLTS data, due Tuesday, the ADP due Wednesday and the jobless claims due Thursday, will all get attention, the Friday, December ’24 nonfarm payroll report is the biggest report of the week.
Job growth looked to be a little heavy in November, ’24’s report with overall job creation at 227k and private payrolls at 194k.
Conclusion:
One thing I’ve noticed after a near 30 years in this business is that investors will be contrarian, just for the purpose of having a different opinion than the crowd, which is ok, but looking at jobs data since the last 2 – 3 years and the trends are just rock solid, with little evidence that this is set to change – for any reason.
The unemployment rate has crept up a little, the continuing jobless claims has managed to peek over 1.9 million a couple of times, only to get revised lower, and the monthly job growth per the business survey continues to trend 175k – 210k for what seems like forever.
A 537 basis point rise in the fed funds rate beginning March ’22, and then the latest 100 bp reduction in the fed funds rate back to 4.375% has seemingly had little if any effect on the so-called “real” economy.
The US economy just keeps chugging along.
The earnings data this weekend looks very healthy, but 2025 guidance will matter much.
(If you do think there are reasons to worry about a slowing economy or a US recession, I’d love to hear the reasons.)
Disclaimer: None of this is advice or a recommendation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing can and does involve the loss of principal even for short periods of time. The information above may or may not be updated and if updated, may not be done so in a timely fashion.
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