Moody’s Grants Spain A Stay Of Execution

The rating agency Moody’s decision to hold off on downgrading Spanish bonds to junk status has lifted Spanish and Italian bond prices, as well as the euro. Stocks and industrial commodities have also reacted positively to this news – though it doesn’t change the big picture fact that the Spanish government remains up the creek without a paddle, and will have to at some point make a formal request for a bailout from the European Union’s new “European Stability Mechanism” (ESM for short). As we’ve pointed out before, this will effectively hand Brussels and the IMF control over Spanish government spending, which is why Madrid remains reluctant to request a bailout; turning your country into “the next Greece” won’t do wonders for political careers.

Jesse’s Café Americain posts some interesting gold and silver price charts, with what looks like an emerging cup-and-handle pattern on the daily gold chart. He links to KingWorldNews’s London Trader, who says that weaker commercial shorts would have been forced out of the market had gold pierced $1,810 on its last rally. Jesse sees $1,810 as confirmation point for a breakout from the cup-and-handle formation.

So keep that price level in mind. Euro-friendly news tends to help gold (and particularly silver), as it encourages “risk on” buying by hedge funds, and pushes them out of positions in “safe” US Treasurys. So today’s Moody’s announcement could help the metals regain some upside momentum. $35 remains the key level to watch going forward in silver, with monthly charts indicating this as a strong resistance point for the metal. Clear this price, and we could be off to the races in a big way in silver.

The media consensus seems to be that Barack Obama won last night’s presidential debate on points, though Mitt Romney continues to gain in the polls and is now leading in some of them. Would a Romney win have any major implications for the precious metals markets? We will address this point in the coming weeks.