This article aims to provide price forecasts for commodity futures for June 01, 2016. The table below shows the monthly commodity futures prices in US dollars over the period from January 2016 to May 2016 (commodity exchanges data) and forecasted period - June 2016 (author’s calculations). The commodities are classified and placed in alphabetical order. The commodity metrics and names of exchanges are provided.
Forecasted values: increase in green; decrease in red. Forecasts are projected with an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model based on monthly historical data. It is advised to use forecasted values for identifying the short-term price trends over the period firstly. Because of modest accuracy in forecasting price trends, some ARIMA models have been corrected. In addition, the forecasted values have been adjusted to the recent price movements.
The significant positive changes are expected for Gasoline (10.90%), Lumber (6.38%), Silver (6.03%), Palladium (5.92%), Sugar (5.63%). WTI Crude Oil (-8.76%), Brent Crude Oil (-8.50%), Heating Oil (-7.44%), Palm Oil (-6.29%) and Soybean Meal (-5.70%), which will likely close in “red” by June 1, 2016.
On the group level, Energy (-3.42%) and Grains (-1.88%) commodities are expected to drop by the end of the month. 