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Month-End Flows Favor Profit-Taking

Published 05/31/2012, 06:48 AM
Updated 01/01/2017, 02:20 AM
UK100
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DE40
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ES35
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IT40
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KGF
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GC
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LOG
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FTNMX451030
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CGI
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SMI
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MAR
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BKIA
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Month-End Flows Favor Profit-Taking From Recent Extreme Moves In Various Asset Classes

Economic Data

(EU) ECB: €3.3B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €2.3B prior; €769.6B parked in deposit facility v €759.7B prior

(IN) India Q1 Final Quarterly GDP Y/Y: 5.3% v 6.1%e; Annual GDP Y/Y: 6.5% v 6.7%e

(CH) Swiss Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 0.7%e

(DE) Germany Apr Retail Sales M/M: 0.6% v 0.2%e Y/Y: -3.8% v +0.3%e

(DE) Germany Apr ILO Employment: 41.489M v 41.459M prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.4% v 5.5% prior

(UK) May Nationwide House Prices M/M: %0.3% v 0.1%e first rise in three months; Y/Y: -0.7% v -1.1%e

(FI) Finland Mar Final Trade Balance: -€151M v -€140M prelim

(FR) France Apr Producer Prices M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.9%e

(FR) France Apr Consumer Spending M/M: 0.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.0%e

(ES) Spain Mar Total Housing Permits M/M: 6.8% v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: -27.8 v -36.2% prior

(HU) Hungary Apr Producer Prices M/M: 0.3% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 7.1% v 7.2%e

(TR) Turkey Apr Trade Balance: -$6.6B v -$7.0Be

(DK) Denmark Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.2%e

(ZA) South Africa Apr Budget Balance (ZAR): -26.4B v -11.5B prior

(TH) Thailand Apr Current Account: -$1.5B v -$2.0Be; Total Trade Balance:- $0.7B v -$1.4B prior; Overall Trade Balance: -$1.0B v +$0.8B prior

(TH) Thailand Apr Business Sentiment Index: 47.7 v 55.5 prior

(DE) Germany May Unemployment Change: 0K (flat) v -7Ke; Unemployment Rate: 6.7% v 6.8%e

(CZ) Czech Apr Money Supply Y/Y: 6.5% v 6.5% prior

(NO) Norway Apr Retail Sales Volume M/M: -0.1% v -1.3%e; Y/Y: -3.7% v 9.6% prior

(NO) Norway May Unemployment Rate: 2.3% v 2.4%e

(PL) Poland Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.5%e

(RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e May 25th: $513.2B v $514.3B prior

(ES) Spain Mar Current Account: -€3.2B v -€5.9B prior

(DE) German VDMA: Apr Plant/Machinery orders Y/Y: -11% v -4% prior

(HK) Hong Kong Apr M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.5% v 7.3% prior

(HK) Hong Kong Apr Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 11.4% v 16.4%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y:7.6% v 12.8%e

(GR) Greece Mar Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -16.2% v -11.1% prior; Retail Sales Volume: -15.1% v -13.0% Prior

(EU) Eurozne May CPI Estimate Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.5%e

(IT) Italy May Preliminary CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.3%e

(IT) Italy May Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.6%e

(IC) Iceland Apr Final Trade Balance: 9.5B v 9.4B prior

(ZA) South Africa PPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 6.6% v 6.9%e

Fixed Income
(FI) Finland sold $1.0B in 2013 bonds; Yield 0.38%

(HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF46B in 2015, 2017 and 2022 Bonds

Notes/Observations
Month-end flows favoring profit-taking from the recent extreme moves in various asset classes; Gold -6.1% in May, worst monthly performance in 13 years, oil off over 15% in period.

India GDP below expectations.

Swiss Q1 GDP exceeds expectations.

German data mixed in session with better retail sales but slighter weaker unemployment change.

Equities
Indices: FTSE 100 +0.90% at 5347, DAX +0.60% at 6316, CAC-40 +0.80% at 3040, IBEX-35 +1% at 6148, FTSE MIB +1.1% at 13,017, SMI +0.20% at 5912.

European equity indices opened the session higher, as dealers have reported low trading volumes into month-end. Banks opened the session higher following yesterday's losses, amid the declines in Spanish and Italian government bond yields. In notable commentary, ECB President Draghi expressed support for a eurozone deposit guarantee fund.

Logica [LOG.UK] is higher by over 64%, after receiving a takeover bid from Canada's CGI. The offer valued the technology services firm at £1.7B, which was a 60% premium to yesterday's closing price. Shares of Thomas Cook [TCG.UK] have lost over 11% following the release of its H1 results, while Halfords [HFD.UK] has lost over 6% after reporting FY11/12 results. Retailer Kingfisher [KGF.UK] has gained approx. 2%, after releasing Q1 results. Security assurance services company is lower by over 6%, as the company disclosed certain operational issues related to its new technology system. Spanish bank Bankia [BKIA.ES] has moved between gains and losses, amid speculation that some Spanish officials want regulators to conduct a probe into the recent declines in the firm's share price.

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