Market Movers ahead
- Main events next week will be US non-farm payrolls and the ISM reports.
- In Europe focus will be on final PMIs and Spanish Q3 GDP. The timing of a Spanish aid request and the finalisation of the Greece deal remain important.
- Bank of Japan is expected to ease policy further amid a setback in production and PMI data.
- The Chinese NBS manufacturing PMI to confirm recent signs of a turnaround.
- In Denmark numbers for unemployment, house prices and industry are due.
- Swedish retail sales will provide some of the final information on Q3 growth.
- We expect Norges Bank to stay on hold. However, we expect the revised rate path to show an increased likelihood of rate hikes later this year.
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Global Update
- Soft economic data and disappointing Q3 earnings reports put pressure on risk appetite. Equities are trading lower, while rates remain range bound.
- Markets seem increasingly burdened by event risks relating to the US election/fiscal cliff and the lack of a convincing turnaround in economic data.
- The European PMI data and the German Ifo data disappointed as they indicated that the economic contraction continues at an unchanged pace.
- In Asia there are signs of growth improvement, with Chinese PMI moving higher - presumably driven by improved domestic demand.
- The Fed meeting did not provide any new information. The central bank will be in wait-and-see mode until later this year.
- US orders continued to disappoint, which is raising some concerns. However, housing and consumer data seem to be holding up reasonably well.
- In Scandinavia data have been disappointing with Danish and Swedish confidence data plunging in October. The Riksbank kept rates unchanged but signalled a rate cut.
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