Midweek FX Review: Mostly Bearish, EUR/USD Bullish

To follow up on Monday's webinar I will update the analysis to see if we can continue as planned, or modify accordingly...

AUD/CAD: Bearish
We did in fact see the break above 0.98315 which I had down as threatening the bearish move. This was shortly lived as after breaking above the resistance zone the 200eMA acted as resistance, only to then see a bearish engulfing candle form, and followed by the rapid sell-off down to 0.9620. We are now resting on a support zone (Monthly S1, Pivotal S/R) however momentum is clearly still bearish so my next target is 0.940. Also note that yesterday's close penetrated the Monthly S1 pivot and closed on the line, so continued losses are more likely at this stage. In the event of any pullbacks 0.9720 is the next resistance level on the daily. 
 
AUD/CHF: Momentum Remains bearish
This has played out very nicely and the initial target remains 0.820. Next level of resistance is 0.840 (pivotal S/R level) however a clear break above 0.8380 (yesterday's high) would threaten the current bearish trend. 
 
AUD/USD: Bearish and targeting 0.900
The original target of 0.9250 has been more than met so any retracements towards this level (which is now resistance) should provide further opportunities to get short and target 0.900. Whilst we are still respecting a bearish channel, cyclically it appears to be due a pullback. 

AUD/NZD: Trading at a 5yr low, not one to be bottom picking!
Breaking below 1.12 was yet another milestone for this pair so the strategy really should be shorting any pullbacks. Only a break above 1.12 raises concerns of a deeper retracement towards 1.13 and 1.14

EUR/AUD: Bullish and targeting 1.5
We are approaching the Monthly R3 pivot and previous swing highs so I do expect some resistance here. However 1.50 is a nice round number which I guess the market will like to see traded, if only for 1 tick even. The larger picture is appearing more and more bearish so I expect the strategy to be 'buy the dips' for some time. 

GBP/JPY: Looks ready for a pullback
Very happy with the target being hit however bearish reversal candles are now appearing beneath resistance. Charts can be seen here


CAD/CHF: Clear cycles can bee see
Whilst we are midway through the suspected bearish cycle the next target is 0.850. Only a break above 0.8670 threatens this view

EUR/JPY: Clearly bullish with potential bull flag forming
The upwards breakout to the 4yr highs is taking a breather after 2 consecutive weeks of buying. A flag appears to be forming to suggest another high and the 'mast' is a whopping 400 pips. If confirmed this would project a 140 target however we are trading just beneath the Monthly R2 resistance. Perhaps a safer confirmation (as we do have potentially 400 pips to play with) is to confirm the flag with a break above the 138.1 swing high, which would also be above the MR2 resistance. 

EUR/USD: Like a dog with a bone I'm still convinced this will go down! (At some point...) 
We are trading a little too close to the 1.357 high for my liking, which if breaks will open up 1.362 as my next level of resistance. So intraday traders may want to consider these long positions above the swing high. However as we all know, I still favour a new low on EURUSD simply because the current advance appears to be corrective, and the prior decline appears to be impulsive. 
 
GBP/AUD: Undeniably bullish and targeting 1.80
Only a break below 1.75 threatens this view. However we may also be a pullback/correction which may well range between 1.756-1.78. Next target is 1.80

GBP/USD: Debating what to do at the 1.620 highs
Trading beneath the Monthly R1 and resistance, we could still be within a sideways correction. However this gives us a clear line in the sand - a break above 1.620 opens up 1.630

NZD/JPY: Longer-term bullish pattern unfolding? 
More observational at this point but it does appear to be some rendition of a double bottom (during an uptrend) which is resting upon the 80.5 pivotal S/R. Whilst this is quite a messy pattern where the breakout line is near impossible to define, we could just approximate and say a break above the 84.20 swing high confirms and opens up the 86.3 highs. Certainly not one to jump into...
  
XAU/USD: Bearish Channel within Bearish Channel continues to hold
The Morning Star reversal (H4) at the 1229 support is a slight concern as it also highlights how this level has been well defended by the bulls. We have already seen a test of the upper channel line; however in the event this breaks the next bullish target is 1270. Regardless, overall the trend is bearish so my next bearish targets remain 1200, 1180. 

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