Sign up to create alerts for Instruments,
Economic Events and content by followed authors
Free Sign Up Already have an account? Sign In
Quotes
All Instrument Types
- All Instrument Types
- Indices
- Equities
- ETFs
- Funds
- Commodities
- Currencies
- Crypto
- Bonds
- Certificates
Please try another search
💰 With a 129% YTD gain in the bag, these are our AI’s top global picks for March
Read now
Median U.S. GDP Estimate for Q1 Ticks Slightly Positive
www.investing.com/analysis/median-us-gdp-estimate-for-q1-ticks-slightly-positive-200636045
Median U.S. GDP Estimate for Q1 Ticks Slightly Positive
By James Picerno | Mar 09, 2023 08:21AM ET Several indicators are flashing recession warnings for the U.S., but the median estimate for economic activity in the first quarter leaves room for doubt about the timing.
After dipping slightly negative in the Feb. 22 report, the median recovered to a weak 0.5% increase in today's revision. If the nowcast is accurate, the gain will mark the third straight quarterly rise in output, albeit at a stall-speed pace.
US Real GDP Change for Q1-2023
The main threat to today’s estimate: heightened uncertainty for incoming Q1 data between now and the government’s initial release of the January-through-March GDP report on Apr. 27. A key variable that’s under scrutiny at the moment: expectations for interest rate hikes after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Over two days of testimony in Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, the Fed chief made it clear that he still sees inflation as a pressing threat to the economy.
“The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated,” he said in prepared remarks for his visit to Capitol Hill. “If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes.”
In reaction to Powell’s comments, Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 76% probability of a 50-basis-points hike at the next FOMC meeting on Mar. 22. Before his testimony, the market expected a 25-basis-point increase.
Alfonso Peccatiello, CEO of TheMacroCompass.com, said,
“The issue is — the tighter you keep borrowing conditions for the private sector, the higher you keep mortgage rates, the higher you keep corporate borrowing rates — the higher the chances you’re going to freeze these credit markets and basically sleepwalk into an accident or, in general, accelerate a recession later on,”
Meanwhile, financial markets are warily eyeing tomorrow’s payroll report for February. The Wall Street Journal noted,
“Analysts [are] warning about the potential for key economic releases to deliver a further blow to investors’ early-year optimism,”
Rick Rieder, chief investment officer at BlackRock, advised,
“We think there’s a reasonable chance that the Fed will have to bring the Fed Funds rate to 6%, and then keep it there for an extended period to slow the economy and get inflation down to near 2%,”
Related Articles
Week Ahead: Highlights Include US CPI, UoM, BoC, UK GDP and Norwegian...
By Ryan Anderson - Mar 07, 2025
MON: Eurogroup Meeting, Norwegian CPI (Feb), EZ Sentix Index (Mar), Japanese GDP (Q4) TUE: EIA STEO WED: 25% US tariff on all imports of steel and aluminium comes into effect,...
Trade Wars 2.0: What Will Trump's New Tariffs Lead To?
By Omer Guzel - Mar 07, 2025
Brief Reminder In 2018, US President Donald Trump initiated a trade war update with sanctions against China. Economic disagreement between the United States and China began in...
US Stocks Continue to Vote Down Trump’s Tariffs—More Downside Ahead?
By Trading Point - Mar 07, 2025
1
Trump’s U-Turns Keep the Market Under Pressure Both US equity indices and the US dollar remain under severe stress as US President Trump continues his back-and-forth on the...
Median U.S. GDP Estimate for Q1 Ticks Slightly Positive
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block
Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?
By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.
%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List
Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.
Report this comment
I feel that this comment is:
Comment flagged
Thank You!
Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Add a Comment
We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:
Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.
Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.
Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.