It is a quiet day on the news front and it feels like the markets are waiting for the ECB press conference on Thursday.
Historically the ECB press conferences have been pretty bad for the euro, often causing an initial rally then a bit of a sell-off.
There had been market talk of an ECB rate cut at this meeting but rumours are now flying on whether this is likely or not.
Couple of interesting comments out today though:
- Asia Development bank highlighting the yen still has further to fall as it is still over valued.
- Earning season is kicking off; key to keep an eye on this as it can have a big impact on overall market risk trend - a good earnings season is normally risk positive.
- Nick Clegg was talking about the UK economy - I know, it surprised me too, what on earth was Clegg doing? Cameron also came out with a statement about the Coalition lasting until 2015, frankly no surprise when Clegg sounds more like a Tory each day.
The euro bounced again from lows today, putting in another potential buy signal.
I am still Bullish this pair but suspect the ECB meeting could set a short-term trend, therefore key to try and move stops ahead of this.
This is now heading into some serious resistance over head at the 1.3180 and 1.32 mark (mentioned yesterday, the 6th that a few things were aligning).
Like yesterday, this isn't the strongest of signals but does point to another push to the upside before Thursday at least.
If you can make at least 2 reward per risk it might be worth considering, but I would now wait for a stronger signal either on a break of upper resistance or a push lower.
The cross in the EUR/USD COT Strength indicator is also highlighting possible long opportunities.
GBP/USD
Yesterday's call on the 4hr suggesting a break to the pivot point wasn't far off today with the pair pushing to 1.61115 from a low of 1.6020.
If we can break the immediate resistance level above a push to weekly pivot high around 1.63 could be on the cards.
We can now look for two potential strategies
- Either push lower to key support and 200-day moving average; or
- A push higher to retest channel top
I personally prefer watching for obvious signals on the 4hr chart with this pair.
AUD/USD
The aussie has put in a rather small rejection today. This really isn't a buy signal as the pair barely moved.
Given all the recent Aussie short calls and this pairs historical performance at sticking two fingers up at them, I wouldn't be surprised to see this pair test upper resistance again.
Currently I am standing aside this pair waiting for an obvious signal with good risk reward.
USD/JPY
First time in a while the dollar stalled against the yen. This formed a small inside bar, which could offer a breakout play.
Breaks of yesterday's (4th) high or low could point to a further push in the same direction.
Ideally I am still waiting for a better entry signal.
The COT report points to weakness up ahead and therefore I still prefer looking for short opportunities at these levels, however, do need to see some clear strong signals before jumping on the trade.
EUR/AUD
Possible long EUR/AUD signal off of the 200-day moving average.
Pair has been in a bit of a consolidation mode recently but this does offer a good risk reward even with it only testing weekly swing highs.
Don't over expose yourself to the euro pre-ECB though.
As a normal alternative to EUR/AUD is the GBP/AUD. Offers a similar signal off of strong support level.
USD/HUF
Always keen to find something a little unusual, how about this.
Potential short opportunity on the dollar vs the Hungarian forint.
Rejection off of the 200-day moving average pointing to a move lower?
Nice 3:1 reward vs risk available if it gets a push lower to test weekly pivot.
EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD
Both pairs tested a push lower before moving slightly higher.
GBP/CAD put in an inside bar as well. A break of the high of the 4th could lead to an accelerated move, push past the swing low would likely open the door to a push lower.
NZD/USD
Stronger push by this pair today. I still like this for a test of swing highs and potentially beyond.
EUR/NZD
Bit of a reversal signal on the 4hr and daily Candles, both rejecting lower prices. Still think a move lower is possible but have locked in profit.
USD/SEK
Push lower from this pair today after yesterday's signal. Looking for further weakness in the pair, however we currently sit at a support level which the pair will need to break if we stand a chance at new lows.
USD/CHF
Alternative to the EUR/USD.