TRADE ALERTS:
Buy May cocoa.
Buy 23.88 stop. Protective stop 23.10. Potential projection 26.00. (Potential risk $780. Potential reward $2120). Margin: $1980.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart, cocoa rallied back over the 100 day ma two months ago with follow through this month.
2. On the weekly chart cocoa has closed over the 20 day ma for the last three weeks. That is positive.
3. The weekly chart appears to be in the process of a third wave up.
4. On the daily chart, cocoa is attempting a third wave up.
5. On the daily chart last week's sell-off held at the 20 day ma and this week's sell-off did also. That is positive.
6. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Buy May sugar.
Buy 25.08 stop. Protective stop 24.44. Potential projection 26.50. (Potential risk $716.80. Potential reward $1590.40). Margin: $1595.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On both the monthly and weekly charts sugar has rallied over the downtrend formed since the August high - suggesting a near term trend change from down to up.
2. The weekly chart has a previous buy signal that is still intact.
3. On the weekly chart sugar is back over both the 20 & 100 day ma. That is positive.
4. On the daily chart the recent sell-off held at the 24.50 support.
5. On the daily chart sugar rallied and closed back over both the 150 & 200 day ma. That is positive.
Buy April mini gold.
Buy 1727.50 stop. Protective stop 1694.70. Potential projection 1800.00. (Potential risk $1082.40. Potential reward $2392.50). Margin: $2833.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart triggered a buy last month.
2. On the weekly chart gold held the 1700 support and the 20 day ma during yesterday's sell-off.
3. On the weekly chart gold rallied over the downtrend formed since the September high in late January - suggesting a trend change from down to up. It also, at the same time, rallied over the 20 day ma. It has held above both since.
4. On the daily chart, yesterday gold at both the 1700 support and 100 day ma that intersect at the daily level. Today's low tested and held that level.
5. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
Buy May silver.
Buy 35.720 stop. Protective stop 34.450. Potential projection 40.000. (Potential risk $1270. Potential reward $4280). Margin: $3700.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly and weekly charts established a double bottom in December - suggesting a trend change from down to up, It has made new monthly highs since.
2. On the weekly chart silver rallied and closed over the 20 day ma in January. That is positive as that is the first time it has done so since it violated it in September. It has held above that average since.
3. On the daily chart silver rallied over both the 150 & 200 day ma & 35.000 resistance last week. That is positive.
4. On the daily chart silver took out the October high last week. That is positive.
5. On the daily chart silver sold off to the 20 day ma yesterday and held.
6. On the daily chart silver had violated both the 150 & 200 day ma yesterday but rallied back over them today. It is also back over the 35.000 support.
7. Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
MAY CORN: It rallied to 661 1/2 yesterday and held quite well considering what went on in the markets generally. It did sell off today and tested the 650 support that it had struggled to get over since it first reached it in late January. It did hold. Move stops from 629 3/4 up to 636. Closed 654, down 4.
Position: Long 645 (2.23).
Projection: 685.
MAY MINI WHEAT: It reached 674 1/2 yesterday. It sold off today to 658 3/4. Technically nothing of importance has occurred. Move stops from 632 1/4 up to 649. Closed 664, down 4.
Position: Long 648 1/4 (2.27).
Projection: 700.
MAY MINI BEANS: Another new high yesterday at 1324 1/4. They did start to sell off today but came back. The high 1323 3/4. Technically there is not any change in the uptrend. Closed 1322 1/2, up 2 1/2.
MAY MEAL: Another new high today at 355.50. It also closed on it. My projection in my last Update was 350.00. It has also taken out last month's high. It now has the potential to try for 385.00. Right now it is in the thick of resistance going over 360.00 so we'll see how far it can go. Closed 355.50, up 2.60.
MAY BEAN OIL: The rest of the bean complex got over the 200 day ma almost a week ago. And the bean oil? It tried on Tuesday but failed and has been trading under it since. It has some support at 54.00 and tested that today. Possibly it needs to sell off more before giving that average another try. Closed 54.27, down .20.
MEAT COMMENTS:
APR HOGS: The most current sell-off did not reach the 87.50 support. Yesterday hogs formed a key reversal bottom to this recent sell-off and are higher today. Long term the sell-off did not change anything. The market long term still looks constructive. Closed 90.20, up .77.
APR CATTLE: The recent sell-off held at the uptrend line formed since the mid December low. They rallied back over the 20 day ma yesterday and are higher again today. The recent sell-off did not change the long term positive scenario. Watching closely to buy. Closed 130.95, up 1.20.
SOFTS:
MAY COTTON: The recent rally that may have topped on Tuesday equaled the last rally prior to another sell-off. In short the rallies to set up for another sell-off have not been very extensive. The buy triggered on Monday is still intact but unless cotton can hold 90.00 that buy could be negated. Right now it isn't showing enough to go either way. Just watching. Closed 90.01, down .43.
MAY ORANGE JUICE: The most recent inside bar day did trigger another buy and OJ has finally started to follow through. But not to make it simple, it formed a double top today. But just looking at the chart, it finally does look as though it will make an attempt at a rally and at least test 190.00. One important note, yesterday it closed over the 20 day ma with follow through today. That is positive as this is the first time since it failed that average in early February. Closed 188.35, up 2.60.
MAY COFFEE: A strong close above last week's high (206.75) is needed to develop a bear market rally. It rallied above it this week but has backed off. The bear market rallies in coffee have averaged between 25 and 31 cent. Based on that a current rally could reach 223.00. Since the last major sell-off met projections it could be ready for such a rally. On the other hand, according to the 35 year seasonal average, coffee is usually range bound during March. Just watching. Closed 204.10, up .85.
MAY COCOA: Stops were reached yesterday. It held at 23.00 support. I will try to buy it again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 23.66, up .32.
Position: Long 24.15 (2.27). Exit 23.30 (2.29). Loss $905 (+comm/fees).
Projection: 25.95.
MAY SUGAR: A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 24.85, down .16.
METALS & ENERGY COMMENTS:
MAY COPPER: Yesterday's washout had copper dip under the 20 and 200 day ma that it struggled to get over earlier. But it came back to close above it - which is the important thing. It held it today and formed an inside day. If it can trigger a buy (taking out 393.70) the chart suggests that copper could take out 400.00. Long term that is heavy resistance but if it can pull it off, it could then try for 425.00. Closed 393.15, up 5.20.
APRIL MINI GOLD: After the collapse was over with yesterday, gold had held where it needed to. It formed an inside day today. This could be a buying opportunity. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 1722.20, up 10.90.
MAY MINI SILVER: Switching to May. Like gold, it held where it needed to. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 35.661, up 1.019.
APRIL MINI CRUDE OIL: The recent sell-off held at 105.00 yesterday and then made a new high today at 110.55. On the weekly chart the current rally has projections to 120.00. The monthly chart suggests approximately 125.00. The monthly chart is triggering a third buy this month! Closed 108.84, up 1.77.
CURRENCIES & FINANCIALS:
MAR MINI JAPANESE YEN: Last time I pointed out the key reversal bottom and that it could set up for a buy. It has been consolidating and appears to be testing that key reversal bottom. That is normal for a market to go back and test a low. If it holds, then it is suggesting that a bottom has been established. Watching closely. Closed 123.34, up .13.
MAR SWISS FRANC: Stops were reached with a profit. It has continued to sell off and has good support at 110.00. Today's low 110.23. Closed 110.40, down .29.
Position: Long 110.36 (2.23). Exit 111.05 (2.29). Profit $807.50.
MAR DOLLAR INDEX: A huge outside day yesterday triggered a buy today. There was not follow through as it seems the 20 day ma gets in its way. It held at the 150 day ma yesterday but still remains in a downtrend. Just watching. Closed 78.834, up .040.
MAR MINI EUROCURRENCY: A huge outside day yesterday triggered a sell today. It has support around 132.00. Just the opposite of the dollar, the eurofx is in a near term uptrend. Just watching. Closed 133.16, down .23.
MAR CANADIAN DOLLAR: In the last Update I pointed out that it was consolidating and that always means a breakout. Based on the long term charts, they suggested a breakout to the upside. The canadian broke out to the upside yesterday. The current high is 101.57. Based on the long term charts, the canadian could test the July high of 106.18 at least. Closed 101.42, up .31.
MAR AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: Speaking of consolidation, it is still stuck in its range between 106.00 up to 108.00 approximately. Long term this one suggests a breakout to the upside too. Closed 107.73, up .33.
MAR E-MINI S&P: It sold off yesterday but technically it did not mean anything. It rallied again today. Still in an uptrend. Closed 1374.50, up 10.00.
JUNE 10 YR. NOTES: They looked headed for the early February high but that all changed yesterday. They sold off instead. As before, they are still not showing much direction. Closed 130.170, down .135.