GRAIN COMMENTS: MAY CORN:
I raised the stop to 651 and it was reached this morning. It did hold the 650 support. It reached the 150 ma yesterday and stopped. For the two previous rallies getting near that average has ended the rally and produced some hefty sell-offs. So when it reached it yesterday and stopped, I decided to be defensive. Closed 654, down 6 3/4.
Position: Long 645 (2.23). Exit 651 (3.6). Breakeven after costs.
MAY MINI WHEAT: I moved stops to 657 and it was reached. It triggered another buy yesterday and negated it today - the reason for having the stop right under the buy formation. On the daily chart wheat is still in an uptrend but is now starting to form a pennant. Just watching. Closed 657 3/4, down 14 1/4.
Position: Long 648 1/4 (2.27). Exit 657 (3.6). Profit $32.50 (-comm/fees).
Projection: 700.
MAY MINI BEANS: Beans seem to be like the advertisement on TV for the battery that keeps "going, going, etc." They tried to sell off today but rallied and missed taking out yesterday's high by a mere 1/4 cent. They are starting to look like the S&P chart did before it finally broke today. Closed 1335 1/4, up 10 1/4.
MAY MEAL: Long term it had resistance at 360.00 and closed over that today. It appears headed for the high end of their long term range at 380.00. Technically it has the potential to 400.00. Just watching. Closed 365.90, up 7.70.
MAY BEAN OIL: It triggered a sell today (bad fill) from an outside day formed yesterday. It sold off to 53.24 . Keep stops at 54.37. Closed 53.28, down .45.
Position: Short 53.50 (3.6).
Projection: 52.00.
MEAT COMMENTS:
APR HOGS: The key reversal bottom referred to last time was negated today in the daily chart and the 87.50 support was reached and exceeded. The monthly chart isn't showing anything yet but the weekly appears to be filling a small gap formed at 87.40 four weeks ago. It is now filled. It could be headed for the 20 day ma at 86.75 on the weekly. It is important that it hold it since this is the first successful attempt at getting over that average on the weekly chart since it failed it back in August. Back to the daily chart. It is suggesting further weakness and the possibility of reaching the 86.25 support. Closed 86.77, down 2.65.
APR CATTLE: Long term they have been positive but today's action sure doesn't support that. On the daily they tested the high (131.50) made in February on March 1 and failed to take it out. Technically that is negative and a red flag. They have sold off since. They violated the 20 day ma yesterday and the 100 and 150 today. The monthly is again forming a key reversal top. It tried the same thing in April 2011 and had a 22.00 point sell-off. They eventually negated that formation and rallied to make the high seen this month at 131.25. In spite of this the long term positive stance has not changed. The question now: will this sell-off equal the one seen in April of last year? The weekly chart shows nothing. Odd. Closed 125.77, down 2.62.
SOFTS:
MAY COTTON: India, the world's second largest cotton grower, banned exports of cotton indefinitely yesterday. That is the reason it was up limit yesterday. It followed through today until it reached the 100 day ma on the daily chart. That stopped it. It has since backed off and is now back under the 20 day ma and closed lower on the day. Overall cotton hasn't done much and continues to consolidate long term. Closed 91.42, down .81.
MAY ORANGE JUICE: It has been rallying and appeared to be starting a new wave up on the daily chart. It even succeeded in getting over the 190.00 resistance a couple days ago. It failed it today. The weekly chart continues to suggest more to this rally. Just watching. Closed 189.85, down 2.25.
MAY COFFEE: Last time I pointed out that it needed a strong close over 206.75 to develop a bear market rally. It could not do it and collapsed today to new lows at 192.55. That is not good. Its next support area is around 170.00. Ultimately the longer term projection is to 150.00. Closed 193.05, down 8.65.
MAY COCOA: I attempted to buy it. It sold off instead. It actually did reach my price during the night session but could not repeat it during the day. This is why I don't position at night. The low made today was 22.63. Long term it could be consolidating. The daily chart is still constructive and appears to be trading into a pennant. Watching closely. Closed 22.83, unchanged.
MAY SUGAR: It triggered a buy at 25.08 on Friday. I raised the stop yesterday to 24.61 and it was reached. Today it sold off to the 24.00 support. The 100 day ma also intersects there and should give it additional support. What appeared to be the end of a correction when it started to consolidate late last week turned out to only be a pause in a steeper correction. The market is still in an uptrend and the current sell-off, so far, is a correction to that last major rally that topped Feb. 27. Just watching. Closed 24.05, down 63.
Position: Long 25.08 (Exit 24.61 (3.5). Loss $525 (+comm/fees).
METALS & ENERGY COMMENTS:
MAY COPPER: The potential buy mentioned last time was triggered but the follow through was pretty much non-existent. It started to fail the same day and hasn't looked back since. Today's low 373.65. When all is said and done, copper is still in the same range it has been in since mid January. It is now back to the lower end of that range (375.00). If it fails 370.25 that should confirm a potential sell-off to 375.00 to start. Closed 373.75, down 12.20.
APRIL MINI GOLD: I tried to buy it but it triggered a sell instead. That sell followed through to 1663.40 today. It is pushing into support going back to last October and possibly it will start to stabilize. The stronger support is at 1650.00. So far it has had a 0.480 Fibonacci retracement since the Feb. 29 high. The one concerning thing is that it violated both the 100 and 150 day ma over the last couple of days. The last time it did this in December there was a lot more follow through than the sell than what we saw today. What makes me suspect there will be more follow through is that gold violated the 20 day ma on the weekly chart this week and triggered a sell. If that follows through it could be heading for 1600.00 at least. Closed 1672.10, down 31.80.
MAY MINI SILVER: I tried to buy it last Friday but it sold off instead. On the daily chart it failed the 20 and 150 day ma this week. Today's sell-off reached the 32.500 support area. Just watching. Closed 32.783, down .912.
APRIL MINI CRUDE OIL: The weekly chart has a gap down at 104.14. It appears to be headed for that gap. Today's low 104.51. It has good support at 102.50. Just watching. Closed 104.70, down 2.02.
CURRENCIES & FINANCIALS:
MAR MINI JAPANESE YEN: An inside day yesterday triggered a buy today. I was considering suggesting a buy today. I checked out the monthly chart and noticed that the yen closed under the 20 day ma for the first time last month since the entire move started in 2007. That changed my mind. Possibly this is only temporary but considering its pattern, to do that technically is very negative. Just watching for now. Closed 123.84, up 1.05.
MAR SWISS FRANC: Just looking at the monthly chart, the swiss looks like there will be more to this sell-off. The 110.00 level has been resistance and it continues to have trouble with it. Near term it looks headed for 108.00. Closed 108.78, down .90.
MAR DOLLAR INDEX: It appears headed for 80.000 again. Today's high 79.935. It is back over 79.000 support. That is positive. Closed 79.926, up .561.
MAR MINI EUROCURRENCY: It violated the 20 day ma three days ago. It tried to get over it yesterday and backed off today. When it did so in October to end that rally, it kept trying to get back over it for several days before failing. I am watching it closely to see if it does the same thing again. Watching closely. Closed 131.06, down 1.21.
MAR CANADIAN DOLLAR: On February 29 it broke out to the upside from consolidation formed for over a month. It did not last long. Today it is deep into that consolidation again and almost at the low end of it. If it were testing that breakout, it should not have sold off this much. I suspect that breakout could be a false one. Closed 99.72, down .87.
MAR AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: It has been consolidating for almost as long as the Canadian but did not break out until today. It broke out to the downside. If there is follow through the next target is 104.00. Closed 105.10, down 1.41.
MAR E-MINI S&P: For the first time since the major rally that started in late December, the S&P violated the 20 day ma today on the daily chart. It has held it on all sell-offs during that entire move until today. That is negative. It also has a key reversal top and a double top. They were the first red flags. This could be the start of a major sell-off. If it is comparable to the correction seen last October, it could sell off to the 1250.00 area. That would be close to a Fibonacci 0.480 retracement since the late October low. Closed 1342.00, down 22.50.
JUNE 10 YR. NOTES: They formed an outside day today as they reached the high end of their current range (131.180). There is a lot of consolidation going on at these levels but there is no direction so far. Closed 131.135, up .175.