GRAIN COMMENTS: MAR CORN:
It triggered a sell yesterday and has not followed through. It closed back over 600 today. That is of concern. Keep stops at 612.
Position: Short 596 (1.18).
Projection: 550.
MAR MINI WHEAT: Like corn, it is back over the 600 support today. Other than that the weekly is still very negative. The last time it rallied, the rally totaled 25 cents only. If this rally equals that, it could go to 615 but the real resistance is 625. Just watching. Closed 605 3/4, up 13 1/2.
MAR MINI BEANS: I tried to short them but the price was not reached. They triggered a buy instead and reached 1197 1/2 today. That is where the 20 day ma intersects on the daily chart. Also, that is getting pretty close to the 1200 resistance area. Just watching. Closed 1197, up 13 1/2.
MAR MEAL: The buy mentioned last time has continued to follow through. Today's high 316.00. It is now over the 20 day ma and that suggests the potential for meal to reach 320.00 near term. Just watching. Closed 315.70, up 3.70.
MAR BEAN OIL: It triggered a sell yesterday on the daily chart but there has not been any follow through. The monthly has a buy but is still trading under the 20 day ma. This market could be a toss up. Just watching. Closed 51.06, up .66.
MEAT COMMENTS:
FEB HOGS: They tried to rally over the 86.25 resistance. It did not work. They sold off today to 85.27. Technically the daily chart made a low at 82.62 on Dec. 16. They rallied and then tested that low stopping at 82.77. They then started to rally again - suggesting the start of a second wave up. That wave took out the high of the first rally - further confirming a second wave up and a potential bottom. So is this sell-off that started today just a minor correction to this second wave up or is it more? We don't know. Starting at 85.00 it has good support and even more down at 84.50. It is a wait and see as to how the market reacts. Closed 85.40, down .87.
FEB CATTLE: They rallied today and got over the 123.75 resistance. Today's high 124.75. The next resistance is 125.00. Long term this rally negated the sell on the weekly chart. To negate the sell on the monthly will require cattle taking out 125.37. They don't have far to go. Just watching. Closed 124.20, up .97.
SOFTS:
MAR COTTON: An inside day yesterday triggered another buy today. Cotton has closed over the 100 day ma on the daily chart for the last three days. That is positive. The real challenge now is 100.00. There is a lot of market resistance at that level and a little under it plus the 150 day ma intersects at 99.21. On the monthly it is over the 20 day ma and is trying to get over the 150 day ma. In short, cotton is now pushing into a tough area. Watching closely. Closed 98.17, up .64.
MAR ORANGE JUICE: It triggered a buy yesterday with follow through today. It closed over 200.00. If this rally can follow through, OJ should reach 210.00 at least. It is very close to the 2007 high of 209.50. Closed 200.65, up 9.45.
MAR COFFEE: An inside day yesterday triggered a buy today. There was not follow through - at least not yet. It is trying again to get back into that descending triangle. I am concerned that coffee has spent too much time trying to negate that breakout to the downside from that triangle. That makes me suspect there will be more rally near term. Prefer to just watch. Closed 226.65, up 1.80.
MAR COCOA: The gap formed when it triggered a sell earlier this week was filled today. It is not giving any indication yet if it is starting another wave up instead. If that be the case, the earlier high at 23.88 would be taken out. Just watching. Closed 23.20, up 55.
MAR SUGAR: It triggered a buy today and rallied to 24.88. It took out the high of Jan. 4. That is positive. As mentioned before, the open interest has been building for well over a month. If this breakout can follow through, the rally could be a good one. Keep stops at 23.84. Closed 24.61, up .61.
Position: Long 24.42 (1.19).
Projection: 25.50.
METALS & ENERGY COMMENTS:
MAR COPPER: Yesterday it took out the high made on Oct. 28. That is positive. It also closed over the 150 day ma on the daily chart. Another positive. On the weekly it is now over the 100 day ma. That is positive. In my last Update I suggested that it could try for 400.00. The charts still suggest that. Closed 380.05, up 4.80.
FEB MINI GOLD: It triggered a buy on the daily chart and then closed lower. The buy is still intact. Gold's problem on the daily is the 150 day ma looming overhead at 1680.00 approximately. Today's high 1670.80. On the weekly chart gold is technically still in a downtrend since the September high. Closed 1654.50, down 5.40.
MAR MINI SILVER: It rallied to resistance close to 31.000 today and sold off. It does not seem to be under the pressure that gold is. Long term it is negative with a sell on the monthly chart. Gold does not have a sell long term. It is in a downtrend technically on the weekly chart like gold is. Closed 30.509, up .072.
MAR MINI CRUDE OIL: Yesterday I did not like the way it was trading and raised the stop to 100.600. I was stopped out. It did rally again today but could not take out yesterday's high. It closed lower today. Technically if it closes under 100.00 that would be negative. Today's low 100.12. Closed 100.54, down .22.
Position: Long 100.600 (1.17). Exit 110.600 (1.18). Loss $55 (comm/fees).
CURRENCIES & FINANCIALS:
MAR MINI JAPANESE YEN: I tried to buy it today. It triggered a sell instead and sold off to 129.40! Its next support is at 129.00 on the daily chart. Just watching. Closed 129.67, down .65.
MAR SWISS FRANC: The earlier buy continues to follow through. It is clearly over the 20 day ma on the daily chart. I had pointed out in my last Update that average has been a lid on this market since early November. Consequently, this change of events, should be positive and I would suspect more rally. The next major resistance is up at 108.00. Closed 107.15, up .79.
MAR DOLLAR INDEX: It closed under the 20 day ma yesterday with follow through today. From the low made in late October, this correction would reach the fibonacci .382 retracement at approximately 79.450. So far it has had a .250% retracement. Before that it has the strong support at 80.000. Long term on the monthly chart, if it cannot hold 80.000, it will run into the 20 day ma at 78.250 approximately. The monthly has a buy signal. The weekly has more than one buy signal. Closed 80.405, down .417.
MAR MINI EUROCURRENCY: An inside day Tuesday triggered a buy on Wednesday. It has followed through and closed over the 20 day ma today on the daily chart. That is positive. This is significant as it is the first time it has closed over it since it failed in early November. The entire sell-off since then to the recent low has been held back by that average - literally. This develop suggests the potential for more rally. The key now is 130.00. That is good resistance. Rallying to that level would be comparable to the previous rallies since the early November high. If it fails then, we have seen the rally and we could probably expect new lows. If it gets through that, this could then be the most extensive rally since November and could reach 132.00 to 133.00. Closed 129.37, up .97.
MAR CANADIAN DOLLAR: It triggered a buy today. It rallied to 99.00 and sold off. That is previous resistance. The last time it tested that level it got to 99.08. This time it surpassed that and reached 99.17. Keep stops at 98.10. Closed 98.71, up 7.
Position: Long 99.13 (1.19).
Projection: 99.60.
MAR AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: It was stuck within yesterday's range today. And yesterday's range was pretty narrow. After making a high on Tuesday at 103.78, it can't seem to get over that price level. Just watching. Closed 103.33, down 14.
MAR E-MINI S&P: It made a new high today at 1311.50. This is the second day it has closed over 1300.00. That is positive. Closed 1310.50, up 8.25.
Keep stops at 1281.00.
Position: Long 1297.50 (1.17).
Projection: 1327.00.
MAR 10 YR. NOTES: I tried to buy them yesterday. The price was not reached. Today they sold off to 130.160. They closed right on the 20 day ma on the daily chart. The breakout mentioned previously has not followed through and could be a false breakout. Just watching. Closed 130.225, down .180.GRAIN COMMENTS:
MAR CORN: It triggered a sell yesterday and has not followed through. It closed back over 600 today. That is of concern. Keep stops at 612.
Position: Short 596 (1.18).
Projection: 550.
MAR MINI WHEAT: Like corn, it is back over the 600 support today. Other than that the weekly is still very negative. The last time it rallied, the rally totaled 25 cents only. If this rally equals that, it could go to 615 but the real resistance is 625. Just watching. Closed 605 3/4, up 13 1/2.
MAR MINI BEANS: I tried to short them but the price was not reached. They triggered a buy instead and reached 1197 1/2 today. That is where the 20 day ma intersects on the daily chart. Also, that is getting pretty close to the 1200 resistance area. Just watching. Closed 1197, up 13 1/2.
MAR MEAL: The buy mentioned last time has continued to follow through. Today's high 316.00. It is now over the 20 day ma and that suggests the potential for meal to reach 320.00 near term. Just watching. Closed 315.70, up 3.70.
MAR BEAN OIL: It triggered a sell yesterday on the daily chart but there has not been any follow through. The monthly has a buy but is still trading under the 20 day ma. This market could be a toss up. Just watching. Closed 51.06, up .66.
MEAT COMMENTS:
FEB HOGS: They tried to rally over the 86.25 resistance. It did not work. They sold off today to 85.27. Technically the daily chart made a low at 82.62 on Dec. 16. They rallied and then tested that low stopping at 82.77. They then started to rally again - suggesting the start of a second wave up. That wave took out the high of the first rally - further confirming a second wave up and a potential bottom. So is this sell-off that started today just a minor correction to this second wave up or is it more? We don't know. Starting at 85.00 it has good support and even more down at 84.50. It is a wait and see as to how the market reacts. Closed 85.40, down .87.
FEB CATTLE: They rallied today and got over the 123.75 resistance. Today's high 124.75. The next resistance is 125.00. Long term this rally negated the sell on the weekly chart. To negate the sell on the monthly will require cattle taking out 125.37. They don't have far to go. Just watching. Closed 124.20, up .97.
SOFTS:
MAR COTTON: An inside day yesterday triggered another buy today. Cotton has closed over the 100 day ma on the daily chart for the last three days. That is positive. The real challenge now is 100.00. There is a lot of market resistance at that level and a little under it plus the 150 day ma intersects at 99.21. On the monthly it is over the 20 day ma and is trying to get over the 150 day ma. In short, cotton is now pushing into a tough area. Watching closely. Closed 98.17, up .64.
MAR ORANGE JUICE: It triggered a buy yesterday with follow through today. It closed over 200.00. If this rally can follow through, OJ should reach 210.00 at least. It is very close to the 2007 high of 209.50. Closed 200.65, up 9.45.
MAR COFFEE: An inside day yesterday triggered a buy today. There was not follow through - at least not yet. It is trying again to get back into that descending triangle. I am concerned that coffee has spent too much time trying to negate that breakout to the downside from that triangle. That makes me suspect there will be more rally near term. Prefer to just watch. Closed 226.65, up 1.80.
MAR COCOA: The gap formed when it triggered a sell earlier this week was filled today. It is not giving any indication yet if it is starting another wave up instead. If that be the case, the earlier high at 23.88 would be taken out. Just watching. Closed 23.20, up 55.
MAR SUGAR: It triggered a buy today and rallied to 24.88. It took out the high of Jan. 4. That is positive. As mentioned before, the open interest has been building for well over a month. If this breakout can follow through, the rally could be a good one. Keep stops at 23.84. Closed 24.61, up .61.
Position: Long 24.42 (1.19).
Projection: 25.50.
METALS & ENERGY COMMENTS:
MAR COPPER: Yesterday it took out the high made on Oct. 28. That is positive. It also closed over the 150 day ma on the daily chart. Another positive. On the weekly it is now over the 100 day ma. That is positive. In my last Update I suggested that it could try for 400.00. The charts still suggest that. Closed 380.05, up 4.80.
FEB MINI GOLD: It triggered a buy on the daily chart and then closed lower. The buy is still intact. Gold's problem on the daily is the 150 day ma looming overhead at 1680.00 approximately. Today's high 1670.80. On the weekly chart gold is technically still in a downtrend since the September high. Closed 1654.50, down 5.40.
MAR MINI SILVER: It rallied to resistance close to 31.000 today and sold off. It does not seem to be under the pressure that gold is. Long term it is negative with a sell on the monthly chart. Gold does not have a sell long term. It is in a downtrend technically on the weekly chart like gold is. Closed 30.509, up .072.
MAR MINI CRUDE OIL: Yesterday I did not like the way it was trading and raised the stop to 100.600. I was stopped out. It did rally again today but could not take out yesterday's high. It closed lower today. Technically if it closes under 100.00 that would be negative. Today's low 100.12. Closed 100.54, down .22.
Position: Long 100.600 (1.17). Exit 110.600 (1.18). Loss $55 (comm/fees).
CURRENCIES & FINANCIALS:
MAR MINI JAPANESE YEN: I tried to buy it today. It triggered a sell instead and sold off to 129.40! Its next support is at 129.00 on the daily chart. Just watching. Closed 129.67, down .65.
MAR SWISS FRANC: The earlier buy continues to follow through. It is clearly over the 20 day ma on the daily chart. I had pointed out in my last Update that average has been a lid on this market since early November. Consequently, this change of events, should be positive and I would suspect more rally. The next major resistance is up at 108.00. Closed 107.15, up .79.
MAR DOLLAR INDEX: It closed under the 20 day ma yesterday with follow through today. From the low made in late October, this correction would reach the fibonacci .382 retracement at approximately 79.450. So far it has had a .250% retracement. Before that it has the strong support at 80.000. Long term on the monthly chart, if it cannot hold 80.000, it will run into the 20 day ma at 78.250 approximately. The monthly has a buy signal. The weekly has more than one buy signal. Closed 80.405, down .417.
MAR MINI EUROCURRENCY: An inside day Tuesday triggered a buy on Wednesday. It has followed through and closed over the 20 day ma today on the daily chart. That is positive. This is significant as it is the first time it has closed over it since it failed in early November. The entire sell-off since then to the recent low has been held back by that average - literally. This develop suggests the potential for more rally. The key now is 130.00. That is good resistance. Rallying to that level would be comparable to the previous rallies since the early November high. If it fails then, we have seen the rally and we could probably expect new lows. If it gets through that, this could then be the most extensive rally since November and could reach 132.00 to 133.00. Closed 129.37, up .97.
MAR CANADIAN DOLLAR: It triggered a buy today. It rallied to 99.00 and sold off. That is previous resistance. The last time it tested that level it got to 99.08. This time it surpassed that and reached 99.17. Keep stops at 98.10. Closed 98.71, up 7.
Position: Long 99.13 (1.19).
Projection: 99.60.
MAR AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: It was stuck within yesterday's range today. And yesterday's range was pretty narrow. After making a high on Tuesday at 103.78, it can't seem to get over that price level. Just watching. Closed 103.33, down 14.
MAR E-MINI S&P: It made a new high today at 1311.50. This is the second day it has closed over 1300.00. That is positive. Closed 1310.50, up 8.25.
Keep stops at 1281.00.
Position: Long 1297.50 (1.17).
Projection: 1327.00.
MAR 10 YR. NOTES: I tried to buy them yesterday. The price was not reached. Today they sold off to 130.160. They closed right on the 20 day ma on the daily chart. The breakout mentioned previously has not followed through and could be a false breakout. Just watching. Closed 130.225, down .180.