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Brexit Result Will Be A Seismic Event - No Matter What

Published 02/22/2016, 04:24 AM
Updated 04/25/2018, 04:40 AM

It had long been suggested that the flamboyant and influential Mayor of London, Mr Boris Johnson, had doubts over Britain’s continued commitment to the European Union project.

Over the weekend, outside his house on the streets of London, the Mayor confirmed to the gathered media throng that after much soul-searching, he would favor the United Kingdom leaving the European Union.

Mr Johnson told the press that he would not actively campaign for Brexit and that he would support the Prime Minister whatever the outcome. However, the seven minutes that it took the London Mayor to explain his thinking would have been received by Mr Cameron with a great deal of disappointment.

The British Prime Minister has committed his Government to abide by a referendum result that will take place on June 23.

The referendum will ask the British public a simple In-Out question with respect to the UK’s continued involvement in the European Union project.

This question is one of the biggest political events since the end of the Second World War, and the outcome of the vote will be a defining moment for the David Cameron Conservative administration.

It would be difficult to see the British Prime Minister continuing in his role if the voting public favored the unthinkable choice of deciding that Britain’s future should take a path away from the European Union.

Mr Cameron had little choice but to look for closure on a question that has haunted successive Conservative Governments since the days of the Heath Government in the 1970s.

The high-stakes gamble taken by the British Prime Minister sees Mr Cameron betting his career and the continued leadership of the Conservative Party. What is worrying for David Cameron is the legacy that he could leave behind him, that sees the Conservative Party so severely damaged by a divisive debate that it is left split and broken.

The London Mayor’s comments have just upped the stakes for Mr Cameron. Boris Johnson may have been apologetic and told the press that this was not a personal attack against the Prime Minister or the first salvo in a leadership campaign. However, David Cameron and the 'Yes' campaign will now know that they have a real fight on their hands.

As for the cabinet, the gang of 6 colleagues who have publicly thrown their hats in with the Brexit camp will now feel that the momentum is with them. However, the message from the 'No' campaign has to be refined if there is any chance for the supporters of Brexit to be victorious.

David Cameron, however, can point to the compromise package that he has managed to extract from other European Union members. Although they may not go as far as the British Prime Minister would have liked, they are the best he could have gotten.

The three key areas that Mr Cameron sought changes to were those of EU migrant benefits, protecting the City’s status as a global financial center, and protecting the UK Parliament's role over the power to create legislation.

On the face of it, the British Prime Minister can point to a deal that means the UK will cherry pick the parts of the European Union that work for it whilst remaining outside those which would not be accepted by the UK’s population.

This means that Britain will never be part of a stronger political union or join the euro. The UK, however, will have a voice of influence over decisions over the single market.

The thorny question of European Union migrant benefits has also been addressed. Although the cost of benefits is economically a small sum, the subject became a politically charged topic.

We now have some four months of political uncertainty that will be dominated by opinion polls. Although we will not have the color that surrounded the talks of Grexit, the result of June’s referendum will be a seismic event whichever way the British public vote.

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