EUR/USD:
EUR/USD" title="EUR/USD" width="715" height="518">
EUR/USD:
1.3218
Short-Term Trend: weak downtrend
Outlook:
A week ago I favored longs on a small pullback against the 1.2670 level. Depending on your risk tolerance, you are either long already or have missed to enter long by a small margin. I will consider that we have a hypothetical long position. The daily chart now looks quite positive. The prices are above the rising 21-day MA and that's bullish. Of coure, the daily trend is objectively still on the downside because the prices are below the 100-day MA. But based on the presented wave structure, an advance twd at least 1.3520/1.3720 is expected.
On the downside, below 1.2870 negates, risks re-test on the Jan low.
Strategy: Holding long from 1.2900 is favored. Stop below1.2870. Target=1.3700.
GBP/USD:
GBP/USD:" title="GBP/USD:" width="715" height="518">GBP/USD:
1.5726
Short-Term Trend: sideways
Outlook:
Contrary to our expectations GBP advance abv 1.5680 level and thus negated the Ending Diagonal scenario that I was following. Now, the most logical structure from the Aug 2011 top is Diametric. If correct, further gains are expected this week twd 1.5950 but then another strong decline will follow. Overall, the picture on the daily chart is a mess, so the most reasonalbe approach from a trading perspective is to stay out, in my opinion.
Strategy: Stand aside.
USD/JPY:
USD/JPY:" title=" USD/JPY:" width="715" height="518">USDJPY:
76.67
Short-Term Trend: sideways
Outlook:
It is clear now that lowering the stop to 77.50 was premature. The USD rallied early last week to 78.30 level and then declined sharply again. So, overall the 76.50-78.30 range that has contained prices for more almost 3 months is still intact. And right now the pressure is on the 76.50 support. I feel this support will give way this week and will open the door for a huge move down twd 68.70! Since we were stopped out, I favor another short position if a breakout occurs.
Strategy: The hypothetical short position from 77.80 was stopped out at 77.50. Shorts are favored again on break of 76.51 with 100 pts stop.