Review
Weaker macro data and declining inflation have supported core fixed income markets. Rates have declined further and the EUR curve has flattened from the long end.
The ECB easing measures have not yet kicked in and the general impression appears to be that the ECB has done too little too late in terms of restoring a nominal anchor.
The US Fed has turned a bit less hawkish in its recent communication given the more uncertain outlook, which has contributed to lower US rates as well.
International rates
The global macro outlook is weak for the remainder of the year, which combined with falling commodity prices more or less removes any upside risks to EUR and USD interest rates for the time being.
In Europe we expect further flattening of the swap curve driven by the long end. So, despite record-low 10Y rates, we expect them to be even lower by year-end as the market will price in QE in public assets with greater certainty.
Meanwhile, sub the 5Y segment in EUR, there is currently less downside due to sticky Euribor fixings and low excess liquidity. That should change in 2015, when ECB measures have been implemented to a larger degree.
In the US, we are now less certain about an April 2015 rate hike and given the weakening of the near-term outlook, we have lowered our forecasts for US rates also.
We expect flat US rates throughout 2014, and then gradually higher during next year.
Scandi rates
We still believe that Danmarks Nationalbank will need to make additional FX intervention purchases and deliver a unilateral 10bp cut of the rate of interest on certificates of deposits to -0.15% before year-end.
In Sweden, the base case is that the Riksbank stays on hold for a long time. At the same time, executive board members have clearly declared that getting inflation back towards the target is the main priority and that they are ready to act if inflation again drifts lower.
Hence, the decline in September inflation signals that the market is pricing in a positive probability of further easing.
Norges Bank reversed the surprisingly dovish tone from the June monetary policy meeting at the September meeting. It said that it no longer sees a probability of a rate cut in 2015. We believe that one should not fully rule out the probability of a new rate cut in 2015 given the uncertain outlook for the global economy and oil investments.
To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below