Market movers ahead
Lower inflation has strengthened the case for further ECB easing as soon as the meeting next week.
In the US, we expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 165,000, driven mainly by enhanced private payroll figures, but there could be some downside risk to this forecast as the weather effect is difficult to measure.
We expect the Bank of England to keep all policy measures unchanged and focus will be on the future of forward guidance if any statement is released.
In Asia, most of China will be off for the Chinese New Year public holiday but China's official Manufacturing PMI will be published and we expect it to decline a bit.
In Denmark, the Nationalbank is due to release the currency reserve data. In Sweden and Norway, both manufacturing PMI and industrial production are released.
Global macro and market themes
There have been tentative signs of stabilisation in some global risk assets and emerging markets, but it is too early to call the bottom. In coming months, Chinese data will be key for emerging market and risk assets.
Bond yields in the US and Germany has come down further as yield again trades with a positive correlation to risk appetite. Although we expect yields to rise in the medium term, we believe the pressure continues to be downward in the short term.
Euro inflation expectations are very low and there is more pressure on the ECB even though the euro recovery is on track.
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