This week the scorecard recommends buying GBP, EUR, JPY while selling AUD, NZD and SEK.
Once again the sell-off in JPY seems overdone according to the scorecard and the model recommends a long JPY position this week, even though most other input factors point in the other direction.
The short basket this week includes AUD and NZD after last week's solid rally. Risk premiums also favour being short both currencies as implied volatilities have increased. Finally, the rise in Australian interest rates has come to an halt, which currently favours a short AUD position.
Last week's signals resulted in a 0.1% gain. Especially the long JPY position performed well, while the short SEK position was expensive. In respect of JPY, note that the weekly FX performance is measured using spot rates on Monday at 06:00 CET, while the FX signal used in the scorecard is calculated using data from Friday's close.
Next scorecard signals will be sent out 22 April.
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