Kiwi soars today after RBNZ surprised the market by keeping the OCR unchanged at 2.25%. A 25bps cut was expected. The central bank noted that "house-price inflation in Auckland and other regions is adding to financial stability concerns," and this could be the main factor that's causing RBNZ to hold the powder dry. Also, as noted in the statement, "we expect inflation to strengthen reflecting the accommodative stance of monetary policy, increases in fuel and other commodity prices, an expected depreciation in the New Zealand dollar and some increase in capacity pressures. Nonetheless, RBNZ also noted that "further policy easing may be required to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range." And some economists are still expecting one more rate cut by RBNZ later in the year, probably in August.
AUD/NZD drops sharply after the release and breach of 1.0494 support suggests that fall from 1.1638 is resuming. Near term outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.0741 resistance holds. Current fall is expected to extend to 100% projection of 1.1638 to 1.0494 from 1.1331 at 1.0187 which is close to channel support. Nonetheless, the pattern from 1.1638 is viewed as a correction and thus, we'd expect strong support above 1.0016 (2015 low) to contain downside and bring reversal.
Elsewhere, Japan machine orders dropped -11.0% mom in April, much worse than expectation of -3.2% mom. M2 rose 3.3% yoy in May. China CPI dropped to 2.0% yoy in May while PPI rose to -2.8% yoy. UK RICS house price balance dropped to 19 in May. Swiss unemployment, German trade balance and UK trade balance will be featured in European session. US jobless claims, wholesale inventories and Canada new housing price index will be released in US session.