New Zealand dollar posted a sharp rebound in Asian session. Headline retail sales soared 2.7% qoq in Q1, much stronger than expectation of 1.6% qoq and was a acceleration from Q4's 1.9% qoq. That was also the largest jump on record. Ex-auto sales rose 2.9%, led by 8.9% jump in sales of electrical and electronic goods. It's noted by Stats NZ that there may be a "strengthening back-to-school effect" on the sales. Also released from New Zealand, Business NZ manufacturing index dropped to 51.8 in April. NZD/USD is also boosted by weakness in the greenback overnight and is trading above 0.75, after dipping to as low as 0.7316 earlier this week. Technically, nonetheless, the pair is seen as being bounded in a corrective pattern from 0.7174, made in February. The price actions are seen as consolidation to the larger down trend from 2014 high of 0.8835. While further rise could be seen in near term, we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8835 to 0.7174 at 0.7809 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption eventually.
Dollar suffered another round of sell-off overnight after weak retail sales data. Dollar index dipped to as low as 93.46 so far and the break of 94.05 support affirmed the case that 100.39 is a medium term top. Fall from there would now be correcting the up trend for 78.9 and deeper decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement o 78.90 to 100.39 at 92.181 next. Such correction would possibly get support only after dipping to 55 weeks EMA (now at 89.95) which is close to 50% retracement at 89.64.
Sterling lost some momentum but remains the second strongest major currency this week, next to Aussie. The quarterly inflation report released yesterday showed that the BOE has been less optimistic over UK's growth outlook. The members revised lower GDP growth to +2.5% this year, from +2.9% projected previously. They also trimmed the forecast to 2.6% (previous: +2.9%) and +2.4% (previous: +2.7%) for 2016 and 2017 respectively. The BOE left the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at 375B pound in May. The inflation report suggested that policymakers now expected the first rate hike to take place in 2Q16, compared with consensus of 1Q16. More in BOE Downgraded Growth Outlook in Latest Inflation Report.
Look ahead, the European session would be rather quiet with bank holiday in Swiss, France and Germany. Main focus will be on US PPI and jobless claims to be released in US session. Canada will also release new housing price index.