New Zealand dollar tumbled after RBNZ cut the official cash rate by 25bps to 3.25%. That was seen as a surprised move by some traders. More importantly, the central bank maintained easing bias after the rate cut. The central bank noted in the statement that fall in commodity prices since mid last year was "more pronounced". Income and demand growth will slow due to weak prospect for dairy prices and rebound in petrol prices. Inflation was subdued and is expected to return to mid-point later than expected. Regarding exchange rate, RBNZ expected "further significant downward adjustment is justified." And, the central bank expected "further easing may be appropriate" depending on incoming data. NZD/USD resumed recent down trend and is heading to 0.7 handle.
On the other hand, Australia dollar attempted to recover on better than expected job data. The employment market grew 42.0k in May versus expectation of 15.2k. Full-time jobs rose by 14.7k while part-time jobs rose 27.3k. Unemployment rate dropped to 6.0% versus expectation of being unchanged at 6.2%. The participation rate was unchanged at 64.7%. AUD/USD recovered this week after failing to take out 0.7597 support. But so far, the recovery is weak and is held below 0.7839 resistance, thus maintaining bearish outlook.
AUD/NZD jumps sharply today and took out 1.1 handle. Current rise from 1.0016 medium term bottom is seen as a correction to the down trend from 2011 high of 1.3793. Such rally is expected to extend to 1.1300 resistance and possibly further to 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.0016 at 1.1459. Near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.0574 support holds.
Elsewhere, European and US equities staged a strong rebound overnight on Greek hopes. It's reported that German Chancellor Angle Merkel would be willing to compromise in the negotiation. It's said that Merkel would consider to release more fund to Greece if the government commits to at least one austerity move, even without a final agreement by the end of the month. The report was later denied by the German government as official policy. DJIA staged a strong rebound after a brief breach of 17733.12 key support level and closed at 18000. While the chance of trend reversal in DJIA remains high, it's at least delayed for the moment.
S&P affirmed US's AA+ credit rating and noted its "diversified and resilient" economy. The rating outlook was kept "stable". The rating agency said that the debt burden has stabilized but will likely rise towards the end of the decade. Greece's credit rating was lowered from CCC+ to CCC.
Elsewhere, Japan BSI large manufacturing dropped to -6 in Q2. UK RICS house price balance rose to 34 in May. A bunch of china data will be released today. And main focus will be in US retail sales. Other data to be released include US jobless claims, business inventories, Canada new housing price index and capacity utilization.