The FOMC Interest Rate Decision will be published today. All eyes will be on the Fed Interest Rate Decision and the FOMC Press Conference. No change is expected in monetary policy, but we should focus on the Fed outlook for rates, is shifting, or whether the committee is still looking to raise rates once more this year.
This is also the quarterly meeting that includes the Summary of Economic Projections. If the forecast maintains expectations of a rate hike before year's end, it will be difficult for the market to continue to discount the policy authority's views. There are only two meetings left this year. The probability of a December rate hike is already below 45%.
The Fed is looking at further hiking rates despite the recent slowdown in U.S. data. The US Inflation is top of mind. Also, the balance sheet reduction is important for a future rate decision.
The others important data from today;
In the US, Existing-home sales will be released. It measures monthly sales of previously owned single-family homes and is expected to rise by 0.3% m/m in August. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the US Dollar.
US Crude oil stocks today will be announced in U.S and it is expected to increase by 3.493 M this week. It may be important for oil prices which tumbled within the week. Note that oil stocks rose by 5.888 M barrels in last week.
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD: The EUR/USD positive view continues. In the event that the price continues to rise, we will follow 1.2053 as a daily resistance level. Moreover, In order for the bullish action to accelerate, it needs to rise and sustain above 1.2053 on a daily basis.On the other hand, if the shows a downward movement, we will face support levels at 1.1968 and 1.1884.
Support: : 1.1968 - 1.1884- 1.1812
Resistance: 1.2053
GOLD: The Gold price dropped the main support level of 1307 last Monday and then the price showed an upward reaction. As long as the price remains above 1307 on a daily basis, the bullish action is most likely dominate. On the other hand, if the price drops below 1307, the next support level will be at 1291.
Support: 1307 – 1291 – 1283
Resistance: 1367
USDJPY: Ahead of the FOMC Interest Rate Decision, the USD/JPY shows a downward movement. As long as the price stays below 111.66 on a daily basis, the JPY may gain more value against the greenback. At this point, we will face 111.28 and 110.86 as support levels On the other hand, if the price rises above 111.66, the next resistance level will be at 112.08
Support: 111.28 – 110.86 – 110.61
Resistance : 111.66 – 112.08 – 112.46
CRUDE OIL: US Crude oil stocks today will be announced today. Ahead of the stocks data, the price of Crude Oil is trading just above the 50.30 key level. In order for the bullish action to gain more momentum, it needs to remain above 50.30 on a four-hourly basis. At this point, the next resistance level will be at 51.75. Although, if the price shows a downward movement below 50.30, we will watch 49.33 and 48.48 as support levels.
Support: 50.30 - 49.33 – 48.48
Resistance: 51.75